๐Ÿ“Š raki research
๐Ÿงญ AI ๋ฐ์ดํ„ฐ์„ผํ„ฐ โ†’ ์ „๋ ฅ ๋ณ‘๋ชฉ19์ข…๋ชฉ

๐Ÿงญ AI ๋ฐ์ดํ„ฐ์„ผํ„ฐ โ†’ ์ „๋ ฅ ๋ณ‘๋ชฉ

horizon 1-3y ยท confidence HIGH ยท last_updated โ€”

L0 ๊ฑฐ์‹œ trend

AI ๋ชจ๋ธ ํญ์ฆ (NVIDIA GPUยทhyperscaler capex ๋งค๋…„ +30~50%)

L1 ์‚ฐ์—… ์ž„ํŒฉํŠธ

AI ๋ฐ์ดํ„ฐ์„ผํ„ฐยทHPCยทGPU ์ธํ”„๋ผ

L2 ๋ณ‘๋ชฉ (Bottleneck)
  • ์†ก์ „ยท๋ณ€์ „ ์ธํ”„๋ผ capacity ๋ถ€์กฑ
  • ๋ณ€์••๊ธฐ lead time 3-4๋…„ (์ •์ƒ 12-18๊ฐœ์›”)
  • ๋ฐœ์ „ source ๋ถ€์กฑ (์žฌ์ƒยทSMRยท์ฒœ์—ฐ๊ฐ€์Šค mix)
L3 1์ฐจ ์ˆ˜ํ˜œ (Pure-play)
๐ŸŒ Global
GE Vernova GEV Siemens Energy ENR.DE Hitachi Energy 6501.T Eaton ETN
L4 2์ฐจ ์ˆ˜ํ˜œ (Picks & Shovels)
๐ŸŒ Global
ABB ABBN.SW Schneider Electric SU.PA Quanta Services PWR
L5 ์ƒํƒœ๊ณ„ (Ecosystem)
๐ŸŒ Global
Digital Realty DLR Equinix EQIX

๐Ÿ“š Sources

  • GE Vernova Q1 2026 earnings โ€” ๋ณ€์••๊ธฐ backlog $5B+
  • ํ•œ๊ตญ ์‚ฐ์ž๋ถ€ 2026 ์ „๋ ฅ R&D ๋ฐฑ์„œ
  • IEA "Electricity 2024" ๋ณด๊ณ ์„œ โ€” ๋ฐ์ดํ„ฐ์„ผํ„ฐ ์ „๋ ฅ 2026E 1000TWh+

๐Ÿ“ Notes

AI ๋ฐ์ดํ„ฐ์„ผํ„ฐ capex์˜ 30-40%๊ฐ€ ์ „๋ ฅ ์ธํ”„๋ผ. ๋ฏธ๊ตญ ERCOTยทPJM ์ธํ„ฐ์ปค๋„ฅ์…˜ ๋Œ€๊ธฐ 100GW+. ํ•œ๊ตญ๋„ ์šฉ์ธ ๋ฐ˜๋„์ฒด ํด๋Ÿฌ์Šคํ„ฐ 4GW ์ถ”๊ฐ€ ์š”์ฒญ.

๐Ÿ”— ๊ด€๋ จ chain