๐Ÿ“Š raki research
๐ŸŽฏ DAILY2026-08-14

๐ŸŽฏ 2026-08-14 DAILY Marking

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๐Ÿ”ฅ Critical (0๊ฑด)

๐Ÿ“Œ Watch (4๊ฑด)

๐Ÿ“Œ Watch ai-power-bottleneck power

์ง€์—”์”จ์—๋„ˆ์ง€ ์—ญ์‚ฌ์  ์‹ ๊ณ ๊ฐ€ โ€” ๋ฐ์ดํ„ฐ์„ผํ„ฐ ๋น„์ƒ๋ฐœ์ „๊ธฐ ์ˆ˜์š” ๊ธ‰์ฆ

AI ๋ฐ์ดํ„ฐ์„ผํ„ฐ ํˆฌ์ž ๋ถ์— ๋”ฐ๋ฅธ ๋น„์ƒยท์ƒ์šฉ ๋ฐœ์ „๊ธฐ ๋Œ€๊ทœ๋ชจ ๊ณต๊ธ‰๊ณ„์•ฝ, ์ฃผ๊ฐ€ +14.9% ์‹ ๊ณ ๊ฐ€. ai-power-bottleneck chain์˜ 2์ฐจ ์ˆ˜ํ˜œ ํ›„๋ณด๋กœ ์‹ ๊ทœ ํฌ์ฐฉ์ด๋‚˜ ์ •๋Ÿ‰ ์‹ค์  ๋ฐ์ดํ„ฐ ๋ถ€์žฌ.
๐Ÿ“Š 60/100 secular catalyst 3m quality low
backlog
moderate
โš ๏ธ Falsifier (thesis ๋ฐ˜์ „ ์กฐ๊ฑด): [secular-evidence=1] | broker coverage ๋ฐ ์ •๋Ÿ‰ ์ˆ˜์ฃผ ๋ฐ์ดํ„ฐ ํ™•์ธ ์•ˆ ๋˜๋ฉด quality ํ•˜ํ–ฅ, ๋‹จ์ผ ๊ณ„์•ฝ ๋‰ด์Šค์— ๊ทธ์น  ๊ฒฝ์šฐ cut
๐Ÿ“‹ chain yaml snippet (vault์— ์ถ”๊ฐ€)
  - chain_id: mark-20260814-watch-yaml-0
    name: ์ง€์—”์”จ์—๋„ˆ์ง€ ์—ญ์‚ฌ์  ์‹ ๊ณ ๊ฐ€ โ€” ๋ฐ์ดํ„ฐ์„ผํ„ฐ ๋น„์ƒ๋ฐœ์ „๊ธฐ ์ˆ˜์š” ๊ธ‰์ฆ
    L0_trend: AI ๋ฐ์ดํ„ฐ์„ผํ„ฐ ํˆฌ์ž ๋ถ์— ๋”ฐ๋ฅธ ๋น„์ƒยท์ƒ์šฉ ๋ฐœ์ „๊ธฐ ๋Œ€๊ทœ๋ชจ ๊ณต๊ธ‰๊ณ„์•ฝ, ์ฃผ๊ฐ€ +14.9% ์‹ ๊ณ ๊ฐ€. ai-power-bottleneck chain์˜ 2์ฐจ ์ˆ˜ํ˜œ ํ›„๋ณด๋กœ ์‹ ๊ทœ ํฌ์ฐฉ์ด๋‚˜ ์ •๋Ÿ‰ ์‹ค์  ๋ฐ์ดํ„ฐ ๋ถ€์žฌ.
    L1_industry: TODO
    L2_bottleneck:
      - TODO
    L3_primary:
      KR:
        - {name: ์ง€์—”์”จ์—๋„ˆ์ง€, code: '119850'}
      Global: []
    L4_picks_shovels:
      KR: []
      Global: []
    L5_ecosystem:
      KR: []
      Global: []
    horizon: 1-3y
    confidence: low
    related_chains: []
    sources:
      - "2026-08-14 Claude marking (watch)"
    notes: |
      AI ๋ฐ์ดํ„ฐ์„ผํ„ฐ ํˆฌ์ž ๋ถ์— ๋”ฐ๋ฅธ ๋น„์ƒยท์ƒ์šฉ ๋ฐœ์ „๊ธฐ ๋Œ€๊ทœ๋ชจ ๊ณต๊ธ‰๊ณ„์•ฝ, ์ฃผ๊ฐ€ +14.9% ์‹ ๊ณ ๊ฐ€. ai-power-bottleneck chain์˜ 2์ฐจ ์ˆ˜ํ˜œ ํ›„๋ณด๋กœ ์‹ ๊ทœ ํฌ์ฐฉ์ด๋‚˜ ์ •๋Ÿ‰ ์‹ค์  ๋ฐ์ดํ„ฐ ๋ถ€์žฌ.
๐Ÿ“Œ Watch ai-substrate semiconductor

์ƒŒ๋””์Šคํฌ 8๊ฐœ ๊ณ ๊ฐ์‚ฌ 939์–ต ๋‹ฌ๋Ÿฌ ์žฅ๊ธฐ๊ณ„์•ฝ(NBM) โ€” ํ”Œ๋ž˜์‹œ ๋ฉ”๋ชจ๋ฆฌ ์‚ฌ์ดํด ๊ณ„์•ฝ ๋ชจ๋ธ ์ „ํ™˜

๋ฏธ๊ตญ ํ•˜์ดํผ์Šค์ผ€์ผ๋Ÿฌ 3๊ณณ ํฌํ•จ 8๊ฐœ ๊ณ ๊ฐ์‚ฌ์™€ ํ‰๊ท  4๋…„+ ์žฅ๊ธฐ๊ณ„์•ฝ, ์ตœ์†Œ๊ฐ€๊ฒฉ ๋ณดํ˜ธ๋ง‰ ํ™•๋ณด. ๋งˆ์ดํฌ๋ก  SCA์™€ ์œ ์‚ฌํ•œ ๋ฉ”๋ชจ๋ฆฌ ์‚ฌ์ดํด ๊ณ„์•ฝ ๋ชจ๋ธ ์ „ํ™˜ ํŒจํ„ด โ€” ํ•œ๊ตญ ๋ฉ”๋ชจ๋ฆฌ 3์‚ฌ(์‚ผ์„ฑยทSKํ•˜์ด๋‹‰์Šค) chain ์‹ค์  ๊ฐ€์‹œ์„ฑ ๊ฐœ์„  ์‹œ๊ทธ๋„๋กœ ์ฐธ๊ณ .
๐Ÿ“Š 65/100 secular catalyst 6m quality moderate
backlog
high
โš ๏ธ Falsifier (thesis ๋ฐ˜์ „ ์กฐ๊ฑด): [secular-evidence=1] | ํ•œ๊ตญ ๋ฉ”๋ชจ๋ฆฌ 3์‚ฌ๊ฐ€ ์œ ์‚ฌํ•œ ์žฅ๊ธฐ๊ณ„์•ฝ ์ฒด๊ฒฐ ์—†์ด spot ๊ฐ€๊ฒฉ์—๋งŒ ์˜์กด ์ง€์†๋˜๋ฉด ๊ตญ๋‚ด chain ์—ฐ๊ฒฐ ์•ฝํ™”
๐Ÿ“‹ chain yaml snippet (vault์— ์ถ”๊ฐ€)
  - chain_id: mark-20260814-watch-yaml-1
    name: ์ƒŒ๋””์Šคํฌ 8๊ฐœ ๊ณ ๊ฐ์‚ฌ 939์–ต ๋‹ฌ๋Ÿฌ ์žฅ๊ธฐ๊ณ„์•ฝ(NBM) โ€” ํ”Œ๋ž˜์‹œ ๋ฉ”๋ชจ๋ฆฌ ์‚ฌ์ดํด ๊ณ„์•ฝ ๋ชจ๋ธ ์ „ํ™˜
    L0_trend: ๋ฏธ๊ตญ ํ•˜์ดํผ์Šค์ผ€์ผ๋Ÿฌ 3๊ณณ ํฌํ•จ 8๊ฐœ ๊ณ ๊ฐ์‚ฌ์™€ ํ‰๊ท  4๋…„+ ์žฅ๊ธฐ๊ณ„์•ฝ, ์ตœ์†Œ๊ฐ€๊ฒฉ ๋ณดํ˜ธ๋ง‰ ํ™•๋ณด. ๋งˆ์ดํฌ๋ก  SCA์™€ ์œ ์‚ฌํ•œ ๋ฉ”๋ชจ๋ฆฌ ์‚ฌ์ดํด ๊ณ„์•ฝ ๋ชจ๋ธ ์ „ํ™˜ ํŒจํ„ด โ€” ํ•œ๊ตญ ๋ฉ”๋ชจ๋ฆฌ 3์‚ฌ(์‚ผ์„ฑยทSKํ•˜์ด๋‹‰์Šค) chain ์‹ค์  ๊ฐ€์‹œ์„ฑ
    L1_industry: TODO
    L2_bottleneck:
      - TODO
    L3_primary:
      KR:
        - {name: SKํ•˜์ด๋‹‰์Šค, code: '000660'}
        - {name: ์‚ผ์„ฑ์ „์ž, code: '005930'}
      Global: []
    L4_picks_shovels:
      KR: []
      Global: []
    L5_ecosystem:
      KR: []
      Global: []
    horizon: 1-3y
    confidence: low
    related_chains: []
    sources:
      - "2026-08-14 Claude marking (watch)"
    notes: |
      ๋ฏธ๊ตญ ํ•˜์ดํผ์Šค์ผ€์ผ๋Ÿฌ 3๊ณณ ํฌํ•จ 8๊ฐœ ๊ณ ๊ฐ์‚ฌ์™€ ํ‰๊ท  4๋…„+ ์žฅ๊ธฐ๊ณ„์•ฝ, ์ตœ์†Œ๊ฐ€๊ฒฉ ๋ณดํ˜ธ๋ง‰ ํ™•๋ณด. ๋งˆ์ดํฌ๋ก  SCA์™€ ์œ ์‚ฌํ•œ ๋ฉ”๋ชจ๋ฆฌ ์‚ฌ์ดํด ๊ณ„์•ฝ ๋ชจ๋ธ ์ „ํ™˜ ํŒจํ„ด โ€” ํ•œ๊ตญ ๋ฉ”๋ชจ๋ฆฌ 3์‚ฌ(์‚ผ์„ฑยทSKํ•˜์ด๋‹‰์Šค) chain ์‹ค์  ๊ฐ€์‹œ์„ฑ ๊ฐœ์„  ์‹œ๊ทธ๋„๋กœ ์ฐธ๊ณ .
๐Ÿ“Œ Watch ai-substrate semiconductor

๋ฉ”๋ชจ๋ฆฌ ๊ฐ€๊ฒฉ QoQ ๊ธ‰๋“ฑ ์ง€์† ์ „๋ง (JefferiesยทJPM) โ€” DRAM ๊ณต๊ธ‰ ์ œ์•ฝ ์žฅ๊ธฐํ™”

Jefferies 3Q QoQ +40~50%, 4Q +30~40% ์ „๋ง. JPM์€ DRAM ASP 2027 +29%ยท2028 +7%. ํŒน ๋ฆฌ๋“œํƒ€์ž„ 2~2.5๋…„ + HBM ์›จ์ดํผ ํŽ˜๋„ํ‹ฐ๋กœ ๊ณต๊ธ‰ ์ œ์•ฝ ๊ตฌ์กฐ์  ์žฅ๊ธฐํ™” โ€” ์‚ผ์„ฑ์ „์žยทSKํ•˜์ด๋‹‰์Šค chain ๊ฐ•ํ™” ๋ฐ์ดํ„ฐ.
๐Ÿ“Š 68/100 secular catalyst 3m quality moderate
backlog
high
โš ๏ธ Falsifier (thesis ๋ฐ˜์ „ ์กฐ๊ฑด): [secular-evidence=1] | ์›จ์ดํผ ์ฆ์„ค์ด ์˜ˆ์ƒ๋ณด๋‹ค ๋นจ๋ฆฌ ์ง„ํ–‰๋˜๊ฑฐ๋‚˜ ์ˆ˜์š”๊ฐ€ ๊บพ์ด๋ฉด ASP ์ „๋ง ํ•˜ํ–ฅ ์กฐ์ •
๐Ÿ“‹ chain yaml snippet (vault์— ์ถ”๊ฐ€)
  - chain_id: mark-20260814-watch-yaml-2
    name: ๋ฉ”๋ชจ๋ฆฌ ๊ฐ€๊ฒฉ QoQ ๊ธ‰๋“ฑ ์ง€์† ์ „๋ง (JefferiesยทJPM) โ€” DRAM ๊ณต๊ธ‰ ์ œ์•ฝ ์žฅ๊ธฐํ™”
    L0_trend: Jefferies 3Q QoQ +40~50%, 4Q +30~40% ์ „๋ง. JPM์€ DRAM ASP 2027 +29%ยท2028 +7%. ํŒน ๋ฆฌ๋“œํƒ€์ž„ 2~2.5๋…„ + HBM ์›จ์ดํผ ํŽ˜๋„ํ‹ฐ๋กœ ๊ณต๊ธ‰ ์ œ์•ฝ ๊ตฌ์กฐ์  ์žฅ๊ธฐํ™” โ€” 
    L1_industry: TODO
    L2_bottleneck:
      - TODO
    L3_primary:
      KR:
        - {name: ์‚ผ์„ฑ์ „์ž, code: '005930'}
        - {name: SKํ•˜์ด๋‹‰์Šค, code: '000660'}
      Global: []
    L4_picks_shovels:
      KR: []
      Global: []
    L5_ecosystem:
      KR: []
      Global: []
    horizon: 1-3y
    confidence: low
    related_chains: []
    sources:
      - "2026-08-14 Claude marking (watch)"
    notes: |
      Jefferies 3Q QoQ +40~50%, 4Q +30~40% ์ „๋ง. JPM์€ DRAM ASP 2027 +29%ยท2028 +7%. ํŒน ๋ฆฌ๋“œํƒ€์ž„ 2~2.5๋…„ + HBM ์›จ์ดํผ ํŽ˜๋„ํ‹ฐ๋กœ ๊ณต๊ธ‰ ์ œ์•ฝ ๊ตฌ์กฐ์  ์žฅ๊ธฐํ™” โ€” ์‚ผ์„ฑ์ „์žยทSKํ•˜์ด๋‹‰์Šค chain ๊ฐ•ํ™” ๋ฐ์ดํ„ฐ.
๐Ÿ“Œ Watch ai-substrate semiconductor

TrendForce: HBM4 ๊ฐ€๊ฒฉ HBM3E ๋Œ€๋น„ 2๋ฐฐ, ์‚ผ์„ฑ HBM4 ์ˆ˜์œจ 80% โ€” ํ•˜๋ฐ˜๊ธฐ ์‹ค์  ๋ ˆ๋ฒ„๋ฆฌ์ง€ ํ™•๋Œ€

HBM4 GB๋‹น 31~32๋‹ฌ๋Ÿฌ(HBM3E 17~18๋‹ฌ๋Ÿฌ ๋Œ€๋น„ +80%๋Œ€), ์‚ผ์„ฑ 3Q26 HBM4 ๋งค์ถœ ์ „๋ถ„๊ธฐๆฏ” 3๋ฐฐ ์ด์ƒ ์ „๋ง, SKํ•˜์ด๋‹‰์Šค๋„ ํ•˜๋ฐ˜๊ธฐ ์ถœํ•˜ ํ™•๋Œ€. AI ๋ฐ˜๋„์ฒด ๊ธฐ์กด chain(ai-substrate)์˜ ๊ฐ€๊ฒฉยท๋ฌผ๋Ÿ‰ ๋™์‹œ ์ƒ์Šน ๊ตฌ์กฐ๋กœ ๋งˆ์ง„ ํ™•์žฅ ๊ทผ๊ฑฐ.
๐Ÿ“Š 72/100 secular catalyst 3m quality moderate
backlog
high
โš ๏ธ Falsifier (thesis ๋ฐ˜์ „ ์กฐ๊ฑด): [secular-evidence=1] | HBM4 ๊ฐ€๊ฒฉ ์ƒ์Šน๋ฅ ์ด ์‹ค์ œ 3Q26 ์‹ค์  ๋ฐœํ‘œ์—์„œ confirm ์•ˆ ๋˜๊ฑฐ๋‚˜ ์‚ผ์„ฑ ์ˆ˜์œจ ์ •์ฒด ์‹œ thesis ์•ฝํ™”
๐Ÿ“‹ chain yaml snippet (vault์— ์ถ”๊ฐ€)
  - chain_id: mark-20260814-watch-yaml-3
    name: TrendForce: HBM4 ๊ฐ€๊ฒฉ HBM3E ๋Œ€๋น„ 2๋ฐฐ, ์‚ผ์„ฑ HBM4 ์ˆ˜์œจ 80% โ€” ํ•˜๋ฐ˜๊ธฐ ์‹ค์  ๋ ˆ๋ฒ„๋ฆฌ์ง€ ํ™•๋Œ€
    L0_trend: HBM4 GB๋‹น 31~32๋‹ฌ๋Ÿฌ(HBM3E 17~18๋‹ฌ๋Ÿฌ ๋Œ€๋น„ +80%๋Œ€), ์‚ผ์„ฑ 3Q26 HBM4 ๋งค์ถœ ์ „๋ถ„๊ธฐๆฏ” 3๋ฐฐ ์ด์ƒ ์ „๋ง, SKํ•˜์ด๋‹‰์Šค๋„ ํ•˜๋ฐ˜๊ธฐ ์ถœํ•˜ ํ™•๋Œ€. AI ๋ฐ˜๋„์ฒด ๊ธฐ์กด chain(ai-substrate
    L1_industry: TODO
    L2_bottleneck:
      - TODO
    L3_primary:
      KR:
        - {name: ์‚ผ์„ฑ์ „์ž, code: '005930'}
        - {name: SKํ•˜์ด๋‹‰์Šค, code: '000660'}
      Global: []
    L4_picks_shovels:
      KR: []
      Global: []
    L5_ecosystem:
      KR: []
      Global: []
    horizon: 1-3y
    confidence: low
    related_chains: []
    sources:
      - "2026-08-14 Claude marking (watch)"
    notes: |
      HBM4 GB๋‹น 31~32๋‹ฌ๋Ÿฌ(HBM3E 17~18๋‹ฌ๋Ÿฌ ๋Œ€๋น„ +80%๋Œ€), ์‚ผ์„ฑ 3Q26 HBM4 ๋งค์ถœ ์ „๋ถ„๊ธฐๆฏ” 3๋ฐฐ ์ด์ƒ ์ „๋ง, SKํ•˜์ด๋‹‰์Šค๋„ ํ•˜๋ฐ˜๊ธฐ ์ถœํ•˜ ํ™•๋Œ€. AI ๋ฐ˜๋„์ฒด ๊ธฐ์กด chain(ai-substrate)์˜ ๊ฐ€๊ฒฉยท๋ฌผ๋Ÿ‰ ๋™์‹œ ์ƒ์Šน ๊ตฌ์กฐ๋กœ ๋งˆ์ง„ ํ™•์žฅ ๊ทผ๊ฑฐ.