๐Ÿ“Š raki research
๐ŸŽฏ DAILY2026-07-23

๐ŸŽฏ 2026-07-23 DAILY Marking

Claude CLI๊ฐ€ 24h ์‚ฐ์—… ์ด์Šˆ์—์„œ ์ž๋™ ์ถ”์ถœ ยท ๐Ÿ”ฅ 0 / ๐Ÿ“Œ 8 / ๐Ÿ’ก 0

๐Ÿ”ฅ Critical (0๊ฑด)

๐Ÿ“Œ Watch (8๊ฑด)

๐Ÿ“Œ Watch ai-substrate semiconductor

AI ์ถ”๋ก  ์ค‘์‹ฌ ๋ฉ”๋ชจ๋ฆฌ ๊ณ„์ธต ์ „ํ™˜ โ€” HBM ์ดํ›„ ์„œ๋ฒ„ ๋ฉ”๋ชจ๋ฆฌ ์ˆ˜์š” ์ €๋ณ€ ํ™•๋Œ€

ํ…Œ์ŠคํŠธํƒ€์ž„ ์Šค์ผ€์ผ๋ง ํ™•์‚ฐ๊ณผ ์ถ”๋ก  ์ „์šฉ AI ์นฉ ์ถœ์‹œ๋Š” ํ•™์Šต ์ค‘์‹ฌ ํˆฌ์ž์—์„œ ์ถ”๋ก  ์ธํ”„๋ผ ํˆฌ์ž๋กœ ์ˆ˜์š”์›์„ ๋„“ํžŒ๋‹ค. ์ด๋Š” HBM๋ฟ ์•„๋‹ˆ๋ผ ์„œ๋ฒ„ DRAMยท๊ณ ๋Œ€์—ญํญ ๋ฉ”๋ชจ๋ฆฌ์˜ ๊ตฌ์กฐ์  ์ˆ˜์š” ๊ธฐ๋ฐ˜์„ ๊ฐ•ํ™”ํ•˜๋Š” ๋ ˆ์ด๋”๋‹ค.
๐Ÿ“Š 72/100 secular catalyst 6m quality moderate
backlog
moderate
โš ๏ธ Falsifier (thesis ๋ฐ˜์ „ ์กฐ๊ฑด): [secular-evidence=1] | ์ถ”๋ก  ํšจ์œจ ๊ฐœ์„ ์œผ๋กœ ๋ฉ”๋ชจ๋ฆฌ ํƒ‘์žฌ๋Ÿ‰ ์ฆ๊ฐ€๊ฐ€ ์ƒ์‡„๋˜๊ฑฐ๋‚˜ AI ์„œ๋ฒ„ ์ถœํ•˜ ์„ฑ์žฅ๋ฅ ์ด ๊ธ‰๊ฒฉํžˆ ๋‘”ํ™”ํ•˜๋ฉด thesis ๋ฐ˜์ „
๐Ÿ“‹ chain yaml snippet (vault์— ์ถ”๊ฐ€)
  - chain_id: mark-20260723-watch-yaml-0
    name: AI ์ถ”๋ก  ์ค‘์‹ฌ ๋ฉ”๋ชจ๋ฆฌ ๊ณ„์ธต ์ „ํ™˜ โ€” HBM ์ดํ›„ ์„œ๋ฒ„ ๋ฉ”๋ชจ๋ฆฌ ์ˆ˜์š” ์ €๋ณ€ ํ™•๋Œ€
    L0_trend: ํ…Œ์ŠคํŠธํƒ€์ž„ ์Šค์ผ€์ผ๋ง ํ™•์‚ฐ๊ณผ ์ถ”๋ก  ์ „์šฉ AI ์นฉ ์ถœ์‹œ๋Š” ํ•™์Šต ์ค‘์‹ฌ ํˆฌ์ž์—์„œ ์ถ”๋ก  ์ธํ”„๋ผ ํˆฌ์ž๋กœ ์ˆ˜์š”์›์„ ๋„“ํžŒ๋‹ค. ์ด๋Š” HBM๋ฟ ์•„๋‹ˆ๋ผ ์„œ๋ฒ„ DRAMยท๊ณ ๋Œ€์—ญํญ ๋ฉ”๋ชจ๋ฆฌ์˜ ๊ตฌ์กฐ์  ์ˆ˜์š” ๊ธฐ๋ฐ˜์„ ๊ฐ•ํ™”ํ•˜๋Š” ๋ ˆ์ด๋”๋‹ค.
    L1_industry: TODO
    L2_bottleneck:
      - TODO
    L3_primary:
      KR:
        - {name: SKํ•˜์ด๋‹‰์Šค, code: '000660'}
        - {name: ์‚ผ์„ฑ์ „์ž, code: '005930'}
        - {name: ํ…Œ์Šค, code: '095610'}
      Global: []
    L4_picks_shovels:
      KR: []
      Global: []
    L5_ecosystem:
      KR: []
      Global: []
    horizon: 1-3y
    confidence: low
    related_chains: []
    sources:
      - "2026-07-23 Claude marking (watch)"
    notes: |
      ํ…Œ์ŠคํŠธํƒ€์ž„ ์Šค์ผ€์ผ๋ง ํ™•์‚ฐ๊ณผ ์ถ”๋ก  ์ „์šฉ AI ์นฉ ์ถœ์‹œ๋Š” ํ•™์Šต ์ค‘์‹ฌ ํˆฌ์ž์—์„œ ์ถ”๋ก  ์ธํ”„๋ผ ํˆฌ์ž๋กœ ์ˆ˜์š”์›์„ ๋„“ํžŒ๋‹ค. ์ด๋Š” HBM๋ฟ ์•„๋‹ˆ๋ผ ์„œ๋ฒ„ DRAMยท๊ณ ๋Œ€์—ญํญ ๋ฉ”๋ชจ๋ฆฌ์˜ ๊ตฌ์กฐ์  ์ˆ˜์š” ๊ธฐ๋ฐ˜์„ ๊ฐ•ํ™”ํ•˜๋Š” ๋ ˆ์ด๋”๋‹ค.
๐Ÿ“Œ Watch ai-substrate semiconductor

ํ•˜๋‚˜๋จธํ‹ฐ๋ฆฌ์–ผ์ฆˆ ๋ชฉํ‘œ๊ฐ€ ์ƒํ–ฅ โ€” AI ๋ฐ˜๋„์ฒด ์†Œ๋ถ€์žฅ ํšŒ๋ณต์˜ ํ›„ํ–‰ ์ˆ˜ํ˜œ ๋ ˆ์ด๋”

๋ฐ˜๋„์ฒด ์—…ํ™ฉ ํšŒ๋ณต ๊ตญ๋ฉด์—์„œ ํ•˜๋‚˜๋จธํ‹ฐ๋ฆฌ์–ผ์ฆˆ์— ๋Œ€ํ•œ ๋ชฉํ‘œ๊ฐ€ ์ƒํ–ฅ์€ ์†Œ๋ชจ์„ฑ ๋ถ€ํ’ˆ ์ˆ˜์š” ํšŒ๋ณต ๊ธฐ๋Œ€๋ฅผ ๋ฐ˜์˜ํ•œ๋‹ค. AI ์ง์ ‘ ์ˆ˜ํ˜œ ๊ฐ•๋„๋Š” ๋ฉ”๋ชจ๋ฆฌ ์„ ๋„์ฃผ๋ณด๋‹ค ๋‚ฎ์ง€๋งŒ ์žฅ๋น„ ๊ฐ€๋™๋ฅ  ์ƒ์Šน์ด ์‹ค์ ์— ์ „์ด๋˜๋Š”์ง€ ํ™•์ธํ•  ๊ฐ€์น˜๊ฐ€ ์žˆ๋‹ค.
๐Ÿ“Š 67/100 cyclical catalyst 1m quality moderate
backlog
moderate
๋ชฉํ‘œ๊ฐ€ ฮ”
+43.1%
โš ๏ธ Falsifier (thesis ๋ฐ˜์ „ ์กฐ๊ฑด): ๋ฉ”๋ชจ๋ฆฌยทํŒŒ์šด๋“œ๋ฆฌ ๊ฐ€๋™๋ฅ  ํšŒ๋ณต์ด ์†Œ๋ชจํ’ˆ ์ฃผ๋ฌธ ์ฆ๊ฐ€๋กœ ์ „์ด๋˜์ง€ ์•Š๊ฑฐ๋‚˜ ๋ชฉํ‘œ๊ฐ€ ์ƒํ–ฅ์ด ๋‹จ์ผ ์ฆ๊ถŒ์‚ฌ์— ๊ทธ์น˜๋ฉด thesis ๋ฐ˜์ „
๐Ÿ“‹ chain yaml snippet (vault์— ์ถ”๊ฐ€)
  - chain_id: mark-20260723-watch-yaml-1
    name: ํ•˜๋‚˜๋จธํ‹ฐ๋ฆฌ์–ผ์ฆˆ ๋ชฉํ‘œ๊ฐ€ ์ƒํ–ฅ โ€” AI ๋ฐ˜๋„์ฒด ์†Œ๋ถ€์žฅ ํšŒ๋ณต์˜ ํ›„ํ–‰ ์ˆ˜ํ˜œ ๋ ˆ์ด๋”
    L0_trend: ๋ฐ˜๋„์ฒด ์—…ํ™ฉ ํšŒ๋ณต ๊ตญ๋ฉด์—์„œ ํ•˜๋‚˜๋จธํ‹ฐ๋ฆฌ์–ผ์ฆˆ์— ๋Œ€ํ•œ ๋ชฉํ‘œ๊ฐ€ ์ƒํ–ฅ์€ ์†Œ๋ชจ์„ฑ ๋ถ€ํ’ˆ ์ˆ˜์š” ํšŒ๋ณต ๊ธฐ๋Œ€๋ฅผ ๋ฐ˜์˜ํ•œ๋‹ค. AI ์ง์ ‘ ์ˆ˜ํ˜œ ๊ฐ•๋„๋Š” ๋ฉ”๋ชจ๋ฆฌ ์„ ๋„์ฃผ๋ณด๋‹ค ๋‚ฎ์ง€๋งŒ ์žฅ๋น„ ๊ฐ€๋™๋ฅ  ์ƒ์Šน์ด ์‹ค์ ์— ์ „์ด๋˜๋Š”์ง€ ํ™•์ธํ•  ๊ฐ€์น˜๊ฐ€ ์žˆ๋‹ค.
    L1_industry: TODO
    L2_bottleneck:
      - TODO
    L3_primary:
      KR:
        - {name: ํ•˜๋‚˜๋จธํ‹ฐ๋ฆฌ์–ผ์ฆˆ, code: '166090'}
      Global: []
    L4_picks_shovels:
      KR: []
      Global: []
    L5_ecosystem:
      KR: []
      Global: []
    horizon: 1-3y
    confidence: low
    related_chains: []
    sources:
      - "2026-07-23 Claude marking (watch)"
    notes: |
      ๋ฐ˜๋„์ฒด ์—…ํ™ฉ ํšŒ๋ณต ๊ตญ๋ฉด์—์„œ ํ•˜๋‚˜๋จธํ‹ฐ๋ฆฌ์–ผ์ฆˆ์— ๋Œ€ํ•œ ๋ชฉํ‘œ๊ฐ€ ์ƒํ–ฅ์€ ์†Œ๋ชจ์„ฑ ๋ถ€ํ’ˆ ์ˆ˜์š” ํšŒ๋ณต ๊ธฐ๋Œ€๋ฅผ ๋ฐ˜์˜ํ•œ๋‹ค. AI ์ง์ ‘ ์ˆ˜ํ˜œ ๊ฐ•๋„๋Š” ๋ฉ”๋ชจ๋ฆฌ ์„ ๋„์ฃผ๋ณด๋‹ค ๋‚ฎ์ง€๋งŒ ์žฅ๋น„ ๊ฐ€๋™๋ฅ  ์ƒ์Šน์ด ์‹ค์ ์— ์ „์ด๋˜๋Š”์ง€ ํ™•์ธํ•  ๊ฐ€์น˜๊ฐ€ ์žˆ๋‹ค.
๐Ÿ“Œ Watch mark-20260518-staged-0 shipbuilding

ํ•œํ™”์˜ค์…˜ โ€” ์กฐ์„  ์ด์ต ์—ฐ์†์„ฑ์€ ์œ ์ง€, ํŠน์ˆ˜์„  ์‹ ๊ทœ์ˆ˜์ฃผ๋Š” ์žฌ๊ฒ€์ฆ ํ•„์š”

5๋ถ„๊ธฐ ์—ฐ์† EPS YoY +25% ์ด์ƒ๊ณผ ์กฐ์„ ์—… ์ˆ˜์ฃผ์ž”๊ณ  ํ™•๋Œ€๋Š” LNG์„  ์ค‘์‹ฌ์˜ ์ด์ต ์ธ์‹ ๊ตฌ๊ฐ„์„ ์ง€์ง€ํ•œ๋‹ค. ๋‹ค๋งŒ ์บ๋‚˜๋‹ค ์ž ์ˆ˜ํ•จ ์ˆ˜์ฃผ ์‹คํŒจ ํ›„ ํŠน์ˆ˜์„  ๋งค์ถœ ๋ชฉํ‘œ ๋‹ฌ์„ฑ ๋ถ€๋‹ด์ด ์ปค์ ธ ์‹ ๊ทœ ํ•ด์™ธ ์ˆ˜์ฃผ๊ฐ€ ํ•ต์‹ฌ ๊ฒ€์ฆ ๋ณ€์ˆ˜๋‹ค. โš”๏ธ ์˜๋„์  ๋„์ „: ๊ธฐ์กด ์กฐ์„  backlog์˜ ์‹ค์  ๋ฐ˜์˜์ด ์ง„ํ–‰๋œ ๊ตฌ๊ฐ„์ด๋ผ ๋ฐธ๋ฅ˜์—์ด์…˜ ๋ฆฌ๋ ˆ์ดํŒ…์—๋Š” ๋ฐฉ์‚ฐยท๋ฏธ๊ตญํ–ฅ ์ถ”๊ฐ€ ์ˆ˜์ฃผ๊ฐ€ ํ•„์š”ํ•˜๋‹ค.
๐Ÿ“Š 83/100 cyclical catalyst 3m quality high
EPS YoY
+143.1%
SUE streak
5๋ถ„๊ธฐ ์—ฐ์†
backlog
high
โš ๏ธ Falsifier (thesis ๋ฐ˜์ „ ์กฐ๊ฑด): ํŠน์ˆ˜์„  ์‹ ๊ทœ์ˆ˜์ฃผ ๋ถ€์žฌ์™€ LNG์„  ๋งˆ์ง„ ๋‘”ํ™”๊ฐ€ ๋™์‹œ์— ๋‚˜ํƒ€๋‚˜ EPS ์„ฑ์žฅ๋ฅ ์ด 2๊ฐœ ๋ถ„๊ธฐ ์—ฐ์† ๊ธ‰๊ฐํ•˜๋ฉด thesis ๋ฐ˜์ „
๐Ÿ“‹ chain yaml snippet (vault์— ์ถ”๊ฐ€)
  - chain_id: mark-20260723-watch-yaml-2
    name: ํ•œํ™”์˜ค์…˜ โ€” ์กฐ์„  ์ด์ต ์—ฐ์†์„ฑ์€ ์œ ์ง€, ํŠน์ˆ˜์„  ์‹ ๊ทœ์ˆ˜์ฃผ๋Š” ์žฌ๊ฒ€์ฆ ํ•„์š”
    L0_trend: 5๋ถ„๊ธฐ ์—ฐ์† EPS YoY +25% ์ด์ƒ๊ณผ ์กฐ์„ ์—… ์ˆ˜์ฃผ์ž”๊ณ  ํ™•๋Œ€๋Š” LNG์„  ์ค‘์‹ฌ์˜ ์ด์ต ์ธ์‹ ๊ตฌ๊ฐ„์„ ์ง€์ง€ํ•œ๋‹ค. ๋‹ค๋งŒ ์บ๋‚˜๋‹ค ์ž ์ˆ˜ํ•จ ์ˆ˜์ฃผ ์‹คํŒจ ํ›„ ํŠน์ˆ˜์„  ๋งค์ถœ ๋ชฉํ‘œ ๋‹ฌ์„ฑ ๋ถ€๋‹ด์ด ์ปค์ ธ ์‹ ๊ทœ ํ•ด์™ธ ์ˆ˜์ฃผ๊ฐ€ ํ•ต์‹ฌ ๊ฒ€์ฆ ๋ณ€์ˆ˜๋‹ค
    L1_industry: TODO
    L2_bottleneck:
      - TODO
    L3_primary:
      KR:
        - {name: ํ•œํ™”์˜ค์…˜, code: '042660'}
      Global: []
    L4_picks_shovels:
      KR: []
      Global: []
    L5_ecosystem:
      KR: []
      Global: []
    horizon: 1-3y
    confidence: low
    related_chains: []
    sources:
      - "2026-07-23 Claude marking (watch)"
    notes: |
      5๋ถ„๊ธฐ ์—ฐ์† EPS YoY +25% ์ด์ƒ๊ณผ ์กฐ์„ ์—… ์ˆ˜์ฃผ์ž”๊ณ  ํ™•๋Œ€๋Š” LNG์„  ์ค‘์‹ฌ์˜ ์ด์ต ์ธ์‹ ๊ตฌ๊ฐ„์„ ์ง€์ง€ํ•œ๋‹ค. ๋‹ค๋งŒ ์บ๋‚˜๋‹ค ์ž ์ˆ˜ํ•จ ์ˆ˜์ฃผ ์‹คํŒจ ํ›„ ํŠน์ˆ˜์„  ๋งค์ถœ ๋ชฉํ‘œ ๋‹ฌ์„ฑ ๋ถ€๋‹ด์ด ์ปค์ ธ ์‹ ๊ทœ ํ•ด์™ธ ์ˆ˜์ฃผ๊ฐ€ ํ•ต์‹ฌ ๊ฒ€์ฆ ๋ณ€์ˆ˜๋‹ค. โš”๏ธ ์˜๋„์  ๋„์ „: ๊ธฐ์กด ์กฐ์„  backlog์˜ ์‹ค์  ๋ฐ˜์˜์ด ์ง„ํ–‰๋œ ๊ตฌ๊ฐ„์ด๋ผ ๋ฐธ๋ฅ˜์—์ด์…˜ ๋ฆฌ๋ ˆ์ดํŒ…์—๋Š” ๋ฐฉ์‚ฐยท๋ฏธ๊ตญํ–ฅ ์ถ”๊ฐ€ ์ˆ˜์ฃผ๊ฐ€ ํ•„์š”ํ•˜๋‹ค.
๐Ÿ“Œ Watch mark-20260518-staged-0 defense

HDํ˜„๋Œ€์ค‘๊ณต์—… ์‚ฌ์šฐ๋”” ํ•ด๊ตฐ ํ˜„์ง€ํ™” MOU โ€” ์ค‘๋™ ํŠน์ˆ˜์„  ์ˆ˜์ฃผ ์˜ต์…˜

์‚ฌ์šฐ๋”” ๋งˆํ‚จ๊ณผ ํ˜ธ์œ„ํ•จ ์—”์ง„ ํ˜„์ง€ํ™”ยท๊ณต๊ธ‰๋ง ํ˜‘๋ ฅ์„ ์ถ”์ง„ํ•ด Vision 2030 ๋ฐฉ์‚ฐ ํ˜„์ง€ํ™” ์ˆ˜์š”์— ๋Œ€ํ•œ ์ž…์ฐฐ ๊ฒฝ์Ÿ๋ ฅ์ด ๋†’์•„์ง„๋‹ค. ๊ธฐ์กด ์กฐ์„  ์ˆ˜์ฃผ์ž”๊ณ ์™€ ํŠน์ˆ˜์„  ๋ฏน์Šค ํ™•๋Œ€๊ฐ€ ์‹ค์ ์œผ๋กœ ์ „์ด๋  ๊ฒฝ์šฐ ์ด์ต ๋ชจ๋ฉ˜ํ…€์„ ๊ฐ•ํ™”ํ•  ์ˆ˜ ์žˆ๋‹ค.
๐Ÿ“Š 78/100 secular catalyst 6m quality high
SUE streak
1๋ถ„๊ธฐ ์—ฐ์†
backlog
high
๋ชฉํ‘œ๊ฐ€ ฮ”
+70.4%
โš ๏ธ Falsifier (thesis ๋ฐ˜์ „ ์กฐ๊ฑด): [secular-evidence=3] | MOU๊ฐ€ ๋ณธ๊ณ„์•ฝยท์„ ์ˆ˜๊ธˆ ์ˆ˜์ฃผ๋กœ ์ „ํ™˜๋˜์ง€ ์•Š๊ฑฐ๋‚˜ ํ˜„์ง€ํ™” ์š”๊ตฌ๋กœ ์ˆ˜์ต์„ฑ์ด ํฌ์„๋˜๋ฉด thesis ๋ฐ˜์ „
๐Ÿ“‹ chain yaml snippet (vault์— ์ถ”๊ฐ€)
  - chain_id: mark-20260723-watch-yaml-3
    name: HDํ˜„๋Œ€์ค‘๊ณต์—… ์‚ฌ์šฐ๋”” ํ•ด๊ตฐ ํ˜„์ง€ํ™” MOU โ€” ์ค‘๋™ ํŠน์ˆ˜์„  ์ˆ˜์ฃผ ์˜ต์…˜
    L0_trend: ์‚ฌ์šฐ๋”” ๋งˆํ‚จ๊ณผ ํ˜ธ์œ„ํ•จ ์—”์ง„ ํ˜„์ง€ํ™”ยท๊ณต๊ธ‰๋ง ํ˜‘๋ ฅ์„ ์ถ”์ง„ํ•ด Vision 2030 ๋ฐฉ์‚ฐ ํ˜„์ง€ํ™” ์ˆ˜์š”์— ๋Œ€ํ•œ ์ž…์ฐฐ ๊ฒฝ์Ÿ๋ ฅ์ด ๋†’์•„์ง„๋‹ค. ๊ธฐ์กด ์กฐ์„  ์ˆ˜์ฃผ์ž”๊ณ ์™€ ํŠน์ˆ˜์„  ๋ฏน์Šค ํ™•๋Œ€๊ฐ€ ์‹ค์ ์œผ๋กœ ์ „์ด๋  ๊ฒฝ์šฐ ์ด์ต ๋ชจ๋ฉ˜ํ…€์„ ๊ฐ•ํ™”ํ•  ์ˆ˜ 
    L1_industry: TODO
    L2_bottleneck:
      - TODO
    L3_primary:
      KR:
        - {name: HDํ˜„๋Œ€์ค‘๊ณต์—…, code: '329180'}
        - {name: HDํ•œ๊ตญ์กฐ์„ ํ•ด์–‘, code: '009540'}
        - {name: HDํ˜„๋Œ€, code: '267250'}
      Global: []
    L4_picks_shovels:
      KR: []
      Global: []
    L5_ecosystem:
      KR: []
      Global: []
    horizon: 1-3y
    confidence: low
    related_chains: []
    sources:
      - "2026-07-23 Claude marking (watch)"
    notes: |
      ์‚ฌ์šฐ๋”” ๋งˆํ‚จ๊ณผ ํ˜ธ์œ„ํ•จ ์—”์ง„ ํ˜„์ง€ํ™”ยท๊ณต๊ธ‰๋ง ํ˜‘๋ ฅ์„ ์ถ”์ง„ํ•ด Vision 2030 ๋ฐฉ์‚ฐ ํ˜„์ง€ํ™” ์ˆ˜์š”์— ๋Œ€ํ•œ ์ž…์ฐฐ ๊ฒฝ์Ÿ๋ ฅ์ด ๋†’์•„์ง„๋‹ค. ๊ธฐ์กด ์กฐ์„  ์ˆ˜์ฃผ์ž”๊ณ ์™€ ํŠน์ˆ˜์„  ๋ฏน์Šค ํ™•๋Œ€๊ฐ€ ์‹ค์ ์œผ๋กœ ์ „์ด๋  ๊ฒฝ์šฐ ์ด์ต ๋ชจ๋ฉ˜ํ…€์„ ๊ฐ•ํ™”ํ•  ์ˆ˜ ์žˆ๋‹ค.
๐Ÿ“Œ Watch ai-power-bottleneck power

GE Vernova ์ˆ˜์ฃผยทํ˜„๊ธˆํ๋ฆ„ ๊ธ‰์ฆ โ€” ํ•œ๊ตญ ์ „๋ ฅ๊ธฐ๊ธฐ ๊ณต๊ธ‰๋ง์˜ ์ˆ˜์ฃผ ๊ฐ€์‹œ์„ฑ ๊ฐ•ํ™”

GE Vernova๋Š” ์ˆ˜์ฃผ +88%, backlog 1,763์–ต๋‹ฌ๋Ÿฌ, EBITDA ๋งˆ์ง„ +280~340bp, FCF 51์–ต๋‹ฌ๋Ÿฌ์™€ ์—ฐ๊ฐ„ ๊ฐ€์ด๋˜์Šค ์ƒํ–ฅ์„ ์ œ์‹œํ–ˆ๋‹ค. ๊ธ€๋กœ๋ฒŒ ์ „๋ ฅ๋ง ๋ณ‘๋ชฉ์ด ํ•œ๊ตญ ๋ณ€์••๊ธฐยท์ „๋ ฅ๊ธฐ๊ธฐ ์—…์ฒด์˜ ๊ฐ€๊ฒฉยท์ˆ˜์ฃผ ํ™˜๊ฒฝ์„ ์ง€์ง€ํ•œ๋‹ค. โš”๏ธ ์˜๋„์  ๋„์ „: ํ’๋ ฅ ๋ถ€์ง„๊ณผ ๊ด€์„ธ ์˜ํ–ฅ์ด GEV ์ฃผ๊ฐ€ ํ•˜๋ฝ์œผ๋กœ ๋‚˜ํƒ€๋‚ฌ์œผ๋ฉฐ, ๊ธ€๋กœ๋ฒŒ ์ „๋ ฅ ํˆฌ์ž ํ™•๋Œ€๊ฐ€ ํ•œ๊ตญ ์—…์ฒด์˜ ์‹ ๊ทœ ์ˆ˜์ฃผ๋กœ ์ „์ด๋˜๋Š”์ง€ ํ™•์ธํ•ด์•ผ ํ•œ๋‹ค.
๐Ÿ“Š 86/100 secular catalyst 1m quality high
์ปจ์„ผ revision
+18.0%
backlog
high
margin ฮ”
+280bp
๋ชฉํ‘œ๊ฐ€ ฮ”
+124.1%
โš ๏ธ Falsifier (thesis ๋ฐ˜์ „ ์กฐ๊ฑด): [secular-evidence=4] | ๋ถ๋ฏธ ์ „๋ ฅ๋ง ์ฃผ๋ฌธ์ด 2๊ฐœ ๋ถ„๊ธฐ ์—ฐ์† ๋‘”ํ™”ํ•˜๊ฑฐ๋‚˜ ํ•œ๊ตญ ์ „๋ ฅ๊ธฐ๊ธฐ backlog๊ฐ€ ์ „๋…„ ๋Œ€๋น„ 30% ์ด์ƒ ๊ฐ์†Œํ•˜๋ฉด thesis ๋ฐ˜์ „
๐Ÿ“‹ chain yaml snippet (vault์— ์ถ”๊ฐ€)
  - chain_id: mark-20260723-watch-yaml-4
    name: GE Vernova ์ˆ˜์ฃผยทํ˜„๊ธˆํ๋ฆ„ ๊ธ‰์ฆ โ€” ํ•œ๊ตญ ์ „๋ ฅ๊ธฐ๊ธฐ ๊ณต๊ธ‰๋ง์˜ ์ˆ˜์ฃผ ๊ฐ€์‹œ์„ฑ ๊ฐ•ํ™”
    L0_trend: GE Vernova๋Š” ์ˆ˜์ฃผ +88%, backlog 1,763์–ต๋‹ฌ๋Ÿฌ, EBITDA ๋งˆ์ง„ +280~340bp, FCF 51์–ต๋‹ฌ๋Ÿฌ์™€ ์—ฐ๊ฐ„ ๊ฐ€์ด๋˜์Šค ์ƒํ–ฅ์„ ์ œ์‹œํ–ˆ๋‹ค. ๊ธ€๋กœ๋ฒŒ ์ „๋ ฅ๋ง ๋ณ‘๋ชฉ์ด ํ•œ๊ตญ ๋ณ€์••๊ธฐยท์ „๋ ฅ๊ธฐ๊ธฐ ์—…์ฒด์˜ ๊ฐ€๊ฒฉ
    L1_industry: TODO
    L2_bottleneck:
      - TODO
    L3_primary:
      KR:
        - {name: HDํ˜„๋Œ€์ผ๋ ‰ํŠธ๋ฆญ, code: '267260'}
        - {name: ํšจ์„ฑ์ค‘๊ณต์—…, code: '298040'}
        - {name: ์‚ฐ์ผ์ „๊ธฐ, code: '062040'}
      Global: []
    L4_picks_shovels:
      KR: []
      Global: []
    L5_ecosystem:
      KR: []
      Global: []
    horizon: 1-3y
    confidence: low
    related_chains: []
    sources:
      - "2026-07-23 Claude marking (watch)"
    notes: |
      GE Vernova๋Š” ์ˆ˜์ฃผ +88%, backlog 1,763์–ต๋‹ฌ๋Ÿฌ, EBITDA ๋งˆ์ง„ +280~340bp, FCF 51์–ต๋‹ฌ๋Ÿฌ์™€ ์—ฐ๊ฐ„ ๊ฐ€์ด๋˜์Šค ์ƒํ–ฅ์„ ์ œ์‹œํ–ˆ๋‹ค. ๊ธ€๋กœ๋ฒŒ ์ „๋ ฅ๋ง ๋ณ‘๋ชฉ์ด ํ•œ๊ตญ ๋ณ€์••๊ธฐยท์ „๋ ฅ๊ธฐ๊ธฐ ์—…์ฒด์˜ ๊ฐ€๊ฒฉยท์ˆ˜์ฃผ ํ™˜๊ฒฝ์„ ์ง€์ง€ํ•œ๋‹ค. โš”๏ธ ์˜๋„์  ๋„์ „: ํ’๋ ฅ ๋ถ€์ง„๊ณผ ๊ด€์„ธ ์˜ํ–ฅ์ด GEV ์ฃผ๊ฐ€ ํ•˜๋ฝ์œผ๋กœ ๋‚˜ํƒ€๋‚ฌ์œผ๋ฉฐ, ๊ธ€๋กœ๋ฒŒ ์ „๋ ฅ ํˆฌ์ž ํ™•๋Œ€๊ฐ€ ํ•œ๊ตญ ์—…์ฒด์˜ ์‹ 
๐Ÿ“Œ Watch ai-substrate semiconductor

๋ฉ”๋ชจ๋ฆฌ ์›๊ฐ€ ์ „๊ฐ€์˜ ์Šค๋งˆํŠธํฐ ๊ฐ€๊ฒฉ ์ธ์ƒ โ€” DRAM ๊ณต๊ธ‰๋ถ€์กฑยทASP ์ƒ์Šน ํ™•์ธ

์ค‘๊ตญ ์Šค๋งˆํŠธํฐ ์ œ์กฐ์‚ฌ์˜ ๊ฐ€๊ฒฉ ์ธ์ƒ์€ ๋ฉ”๋ชจ๋ฆฌ ์›๊ฐ€ ์ƒ์Šน์ด ์™„์ œํ’ˆ ๊ฐ€๊ฒฉ์œผ๋กœ ์ „๊ฐ€๋˜๊ณ  ์žˆ์Œ์„ ์‹œ์‚ฌํ•œ๋‹ค. ๋ชจ๋ฐ”์ผ ์ˆ˜์š”๋Š” ๋‘”ํ™” ์œ„ํ—˜์ด ์žˆ์œผ๋‚˜ ์„œ๋ฒ„ยทAI์™€ ๊ฒฐํ•ฉ๋  ๊ฒฝ์šฐ ์‚ผ์„ฑ์ „์žยทSKํ•˜์ด๋‹‰์Šค์˜ DRAM ์ด์ต ๋ ˆ๋ฒ„๋ฆฌ์ง€๋ฅผ ๋ณด๊ฐ•ํ•œ๋‹ค.
๐Ÿ“Š 76/100 cyclical catalyst 1m quality high
backlog
moderate
โš ๏ธ Falsifier (thesis ๋ฐ˜์ „ ์กฐ๊ฑด): ์Šค๋งˆํŠธํฐ ์ถœํ•˜๋Ÿ‰ ๊ฐ์†Œ๊ฐ€ ๊ฐ€๊ฒฉ ์ „๊ฐ€ ํšจ๊ณผ๋ฅผ ์ƒ์‡„ํ•˜๊ฑฐ๋‚˜ DRAM ํ˜„๋ฌผยท๊ณ„์•ฝ๊ฐ€๊ฒฉ์ด ๋™๋ฐ˜ ํ•˜๋ฝํ•˜๋ฉด thesis ๋ฐ˜์ „
๐Ÿ“‹ chain yaml snippet (vault์— ์ถ”๊ฐ€)
  - chain_id: mark-20260723-watch-yaml-5
    name: ๋ฉ”๋ชจ๋ฆฌ ์›๊ฐ€ ์ „๊ฐ€์˜ ์Šค๋งˆํŠธํฐ ๊ฐ€๊ฒฉ ์ธ์ƒ โ€” DRAM ๊ณต๊ธ‰๋ถ€์กฑยทASP ์ƒ์Šน ํ™•์ธ
    L0_trend: ์ค‘๊ตญ ์Šค๋งˆํŠธํฐ ์ œ์กฐ์‚ฌ์˜ ๊ฐ€๊ฒฉ ์ธ์ƒ์€ ๋ฉ”๋ชจ๋ฆฌ ์›๊ฐ€ ์ƒ์Šน์ด ์™„์ œํ’ˆ ๊ฐ€๊ฒฉ์œผ๋กœ ์ „๊ฐ€๋˜๊ณ  ์žˆ์Œ์„ ์‹œ์‚ฌํ•œ๋‹ค. ๋ชจ๋ฐ”์ผ ์ˆ˜์š”๋Š” ๋‘”ํ™” ์œ„ํ—˜์ด ์žˆ์œผ๋‚˜ ์„œ๋ฒ„ยทAI์™€ ๊ฒฐํ•ฉ๋  ๊ฒฝ์šฐ ์‚ผ์„ฑ์ „์žยทSKํ•˜์ด๋‹‰์Šค์˜ DRAM ์ด์ต ๋ ˆ๋ฒ„๋ฆฌ์ง€๋ฅผ ๋ณด๊ฐ•ํ•œ๋‹ค.
    L1_industry: TODO
    L2_bottleneck:
      - TODO
    L3_primary:
      KR:
        - {name: ์‚ผ์„ฑ์ „์ž, code: '005930'}
        - {name: SKํ•˜์ด๋‹‰์Šค, code: '000660'}
      Global: []
    L4_picks_shovels:
      KR: []
      Global: []
    L5_ecosystem:
      KR: []
      Global: []
    horizon: 1-3y
    confidence: low
    related_chains: []
    sources:
      - "2026-07-23 Claude marking (watch)"
    notes: |
      ์ค‘๊ตญ ์Šค๋งˆํŠธํฐ ์ œ์กฐ์‚ฌ์˜ ๊ฐ€๊ฒฉ ์ธ์ƒ์€ ๋ฉ”๋ชจ๋ฆฌ ์›๊ฐ€ ์ƒ์Šน์ด ์™„์ œํ’ˆ ๊ฐ€๊ฒฉ์œผ๋กœ ์ „๊ฐ€๋˜๊ณ  ์žˆ์Œ์„ ์‹œ์‚ฌํ•œ๋‹ค. ๋ชจ๋ฐ”์ผ ์ˆ˜์š”๋Š” ๋‘”ํ™” ์œ„ํ—˜์ด ์žˆ์œผ๋‚˜ ์„œ๋ฒ„ยทAI์™€ ๊ฒฐํ•ฉ๋  ๊ฒฝ์šฐ ์‚ผ์„ฑ์ „์žยทSKํ•˜์ด๋‹‰์Šค์˜ DRAM ์ด์ต ๋ ˆ๋ฒ„๋ฆฌ์ง€๋ฅผ ๋ณด๊ฐ•ํ•œ๋‹ค.
๐Ÿ“Œ Watch ai-substrate semiconductor

SKํ•˜์ด๋‹‰์Šค B2B ๋งค์ถœ๊ตฌ์กฐ ์ „ํ™˜ โ€” AI ๋ฉ”๋ชจ๋ฆฌ ๊ณ„์•ฝํ˜• ๋งค์ถœ ๋น„์ค‘ ํ™•๋Œ€ ํ›„๋ณด

B2B ๋น„์ค‘ 70%๋ผ๋Š” ๋งค์ถœ๊ตฌ์กฐ ์ „ํ™˜๊ณผ KB์ฆ๊ถŒ ๋ชฉํ‘œ๊ฐ€ 420๋งŒ์› ์ œ์‹œ๋Š” AI ๋ฉ”๋ชจ๋ฆฌ์˜ ๊ณ ๊ฐยท์ œํ’ˆ ๋ฏน์Šค ๊ฐœ์„  ๊ธฐ๋Œ€๋ฅผ ๋ฐ˜์˜ํ•œ๋‹ค. ๋‹ค๋งŒ ๋‹จ์ผ ๋ฆฌ์„œ์น˜ ์š”์•ฝ๋งŒ์œผ๋กœ๋Š” critical ์ •๋Ÿ‰ ๊ฒŒ์ดํŠธ๋ฅผ ์ถฉ์กฑํ•˜์ง€ ๋ชปํ•œ๋‹ค.
๐Ÿ“Š 73/100 secular catalyst 1m quality high
backlog
moderate
๋ชฉํ‘œ๊ฐ€ ฮ”
+128.8%
โš ๏ธ Falsifier (thesis ๋ฐ˜์ „ ์กฐ๊ฑด): [secular-evidence=2] | HBM ๊ณ ๊ฐ ๋‹ค๋ณ€ํ™”๊ฐ€ ๋งค์ถœ ๋ฏน์Šคยท๋งˆ์ง„ ๊ฐœ์„ ์œผ๋กœ ์ด์–ด์ง€์ง€ ์•Š๊ฑฐ๋‚˜ DRAM ๊ณ„์•ฝ๊ฐ€๊ฒฉ์ด ํ•˜๋ฝ ์ „ํ™˜ํ•˜๋ฉด thesis ๋ฐ˜์ „
๐Ÿ“‹ chain yaml snippet (vault์— ์ถ”๊ฐ€)
  - chain_id: mark-20260723-watch-yaml-6
    name: SKํ•˜์ด๋‹‰์Šค B2B ๋งค์ถœ๊ตฌ์กฐ ์ „ํ™˜ โ€” AI ๋ฉ”๋ชจ๋ฆฌ ๊ณ„์•ฝํ˜• ๋งค์ถœ ๋น„์ค‘ ํ™•๋Œ€ ํ›„๋ณด
    L0_trend: B2B ๋น„์ค‘ 70%๋ผ๋Š” ๋งค์ถœ๊ตฌ์กฐ ์ „ํ™˜๊ณผ KB์ฆ๊ถŒ ๋ชฉํ‘œ๊ฐ€ 420๋งŒ์› ์ œ์‹œ๋Š” AI ๋ฉ”๋ชจ๋ฆฌ์˜ ๊ณ ๊ฐยท์ œํ’ˆ ๋ฏน์Šค ๊ฐœ์„  ๊ธฐ๋Œ€๋ฅผ ๋ฐ˜์˜ํ•œ๋‹ค. ๋‹ค๋งŒ ๋‹จ์ผ ๋ฆฌ์„œ์น˜ ์š”์•ฝ๋งŒ์œผ๋กœ๋Š” critical ์ •๋Ÿ‰ ๊ฒŒ์ดํŠธ๋ฅผ ์ถฉ์กฑํ•˜์ง€ ๋ชปํ•œ๋‹ค.
    L1_industry: TODO
    L2_bottleneck:
      - TODO
    L3_primary:
      KR:
        - {name: SKํ•˜์ด๋‹‰์Šค, code: '000660'}
      Global: []
    L4_picks_shovels:
      KR: []
      Global: []
    L5_ecosystem:
      KR: []
      Global: []
    horizon: 1-3y
    confidence: low
    related_chains: []
    sources:
      - "2026-07-23 Claude marking (watch)"
    notes: |
      B2B ๋น„์ค‘ 70%๋ผ๋Š” ๋งค์ถœ๊ตฌ์กฐ ์ „ํ™˜๊ณผ KB์ฆ๊ถŒ ๋ชฉํ‘œ๊ฐ€ 420๋งŒ์› ์ œ์‹œ๋Š” AI ๋ฉ”๋ชจ๋ฆฌ์˜ ๊ณ ๊ฐยท์ œํ’ˆ ๋ฏน์Šค ๊ฐœ์„  ๊ธฐ๋Œ€๋ฅผ ๋ฐ˜์˜ํ•œ๋‹ค. ๋‹ค๋งŒ ๋‹จ์ผ ๋ฆฌ์„œ์น˜ ์š”์•ฝ๋งŒ์œผ๋กœ๋Š” critical ์ •๋Ÿ‰ ๊ฒŒ์ดํŠธ๋ฅผ ์ถฉ์กฑํ•˜์ง€ ๋ชปํ•œ๋‹ค.
๐Ÿ“Œ Watch ai-substrate semiconductor

์•ŒํŒŒ๋ฒณ ํด๋ผ์šฐ๋“œยทCapEx ์žฌ์ƒํ–ฅ โ€” ํ•œ๊ตญ AI ๋ฉ”๋ชจ๋ฆฌ ์ˆ˜์š”์˜ ๊ฐ€์‹œ์„ฑ ๊ฐ•ํ™”

์•ŒํŒŒ๋ฒณ ํด๋ผ์šฐ๋“œ ๋งค์ถœ +82%, RPO 5,140์–ต๋‹ฌ๋Ÿฌ์™€ 2026๋…„ CapEx 1,950~2,050์–ต๋‹ฌ๋Ÿฌ ์ƒํ–ฅ์€ AI ์„œ๋ฒ„ยทHBM ํˆฌ์ž ์ง€์†์˜ ์‹ค์ธก ๊ทผ๊ฑฐ๋‹ค. SKํ•˜์ด๋‹‰์Šคยท์‚ผ์„ฑ์ „์ž์˜ AI ๋ฉ”๋ชจ๋ฆฌ ์ˆ˜์š” ๋ฐ ASP ์ƒ์Šน ๋…ผ๋ฆฌ๋ฅผ ๋ณด๊ฐ•ํ•œ๋‹ค. โš”๏ธ ์˜๋„์  ๋„์ „: ๋ฐ˜๋„์ฒด ์™ธ๊ตญ์ธ ์ˆ˜๊ธ‰๊ณผ ๋ชฉํ‘œ๊ฐ€ revision breadth๊ฐ€ ์•ฝํ•ด, CapEx๊ฐ€ ์ฆ‰์‹œ ํ•œ๊ตญ ๋ฉ”๋ชจ๋ฆฌ ์‹ค์  ์ƒํ–ฅ์œผ๋กœ ์ „์ด๋˜๋Š”์ง€๋Š” ํ™•์ธ์ด ํ•„์š”ํ•˜๋‹ค.
๐Ÿ“Š 84/100 secular catalyst 1m quality high
backlog
high
โš ๏ธ Falsifier (thesis ๋ฐ˜์ „ ์กฐ๊ฑด): [secular-evidence=1] | ํ•˜์ดํผ์Šค์ผ€์ผ๋Ÿฌ CapEx ๊ฐ€์ด๋˜์Šค๊ฐ€ ํ•˜ํ–ฅ๋˜๊ฑฐ๋‚˜ HBMยท์„œ๋ฒ„ DRAM ASP ์ƒ์Šน์ด 2๊ฐœ ๋ถ„๊ธฐ ์—ฐ์† ๊บพ์ด๋ฉด thesis ๋ฐ˜์ „
๐Ÿ“‹ chain yaml snippet (vault์— ์ถ”๊ฐ€)
  - chain_id: mark-20260723-watch-yaml-7
    name: ์•ŒํŒŒ๋ฒณ ํด๋ผ์šฐ๋“œยทCapEx ์žฌ์ƒํ–ฅ โ€” ํ•œ๊ตญ AI ๋ฉ”๋ชจ๋ฆฌ ์ˆ˜์š”์˜ ๊ฐ€์‹œ์„ฑ ๊ฐ•ํ™”
    L0_trend: ์•ŒํŒŒ๋ฒณ ํด๋ผ์šฐ๋“œ ๋งค์ถœ +82%, RPO 5,140์–ต๋‹ฌ๋Ÿฌ์™€ 2026๋…„ CapEx 1,950~2,050์–ต๋‹ฌ๋Ÿฌ ์ƒํ–ฅ์€ AI ์„œ๋ฒ„ยทHBM ํˆฌ์ž ์ง€์†์˜ ์‹ค์ธก ๊ทผ๊ฑฐ๋‹ค. SKํ•˜์ด๋‹‰์Šคยท์‚ผ์„ฑ์ „์ž์˜ AI ๋ฉ”๋ชจ๋ฆฌ ์ˆ˜์š” ๋ฐ ASP ์ƒ์Šน 
    L1_industry: TODO
    L2_bottleneck:
      - TODO
    L3_primary:
      KR:
        - {name: SKํ•˜์ด๋‹‰์Šค, code: '000660'}
        - {name: ์‚ผ์„ฑ์ „์ž, code: '005930'}
      Global: []
    L4_picks_shovels:
      KR: []
      Global: []
    L5_ecosystem:
      KR: []
      Global: []
    horizon: 1-3y
    confidence: low
    related_chains: []
    sources:
      - "2026-07-23 Claude marking (watch)"
    notes: |
      ์•ŒํŒŒ๋ฒณ ํด๋ผ์šฐ๋“œ ๋งค์ถœ +82%, RPO 5,140์–ต๋‹ฌ๋Ÿฌ์™€ 2026๋…„ CapEx 1,950~2,050์–ต๋‹ฌ๋Ÿฌ ์ƒํ–ฅ์€ AI ์„œ๋ฒ„ยทHBM ํˆฌ์ž ์ง€์†์˜ ์‹ค์ธก ๊ทผ๊ฑฐ๋‹ค. SKํ•˜์ด๋‹‰์Šคยท์‚ผ์„ฑ์ „์ž์˜ AI ๋ฉ”๋ชจ๋ฆฌ ์ˆ˜์š” ๋ฐ ASP ์ƒ์Šน ๋…ผ๋ฆฌ๋ฅผ ๋ณด๊ฐ•ํ•œ๋‹ค. โš”๏ธ ์˜๋„์  ๋„์ „: ๋ฐ˜๋„์ฒด ์™ธ๊ตญ์ธ ์ˆ˜๊ธ‰๊ณผ ๋ชฉํ‘œ๊ฐ€ revision breadth๊ฐ€ ์•ฝํ•ด, CapEx๊ฐ€ ์ฆ‰์‹œ ํ•œ๊ตญ ๋ฉ”๋ชจ๋ฆฌ ์‹ค์  ์ƒ