๐Ÿ“Š raki research
๐ŸŽฏ DAILY2026-08-18

๐ŸŽฏ 2026-08-18 DAILY Marking

Claude CLI๊ฐ€ 24h ์‚ฐ์—… ์ด์Šˆ์—์„œ ์ž๋™ ์ถ”์ถœ ยท ๐Ÿ”ฅ 0 / ๐Ÿ“Œ 7 / ๐Ÿ’ก 0

๐Ÿ”ฅ Critical (0๊ฑด)

๐Ÿ“Œ Watch (7๊ฑด)

๐Ÿ“Œ Watch battery

์‚ผ์„ฑSDI โ€” GM JV ์ฒญ์‚ฐ์œผ๋กœ ็พŽ ์ƒ์‚ฐ๋Šฅ๋ ฅ ํ™•๋ณด, ESS LFP ์ „ํ™˜ยท์œ ๋Ÿฝ ์ ์œ ์œจ ํ™•๋Œ€ ๊ธฐ๋Œ€

GM๊ณผ์˜ JV ์ฒญ์‚ฐ์œผ๋กœ ๋ฏธ๊ตญ ๋‚ด ์ƒ์‚ฐ๋Šฅ๋ ฅ ๋ถ€์กฑ ๋ฌธ์ œ ํ•ด์†Œ, ESS LFP ๋ผ์ธ ์ „ํ™˜ ์‹œ ์ถ”๊ฐ€ capa ํ™•๋ณด ๊ฐ€๋Šฅ. ์œ ๋Ÿฝ EV ์ ์œ ์œจ ํ™•๋Œ€ ๊ธฐ๋Œ€๊ฐ์ด ์žˆ์œผ๋‚˜ ์ •๋Ÿ‰ ์‹ค์  ๋ฐ์ดํ„ฐ ๋ถ€์žฌํ•œ ์• ๋„๋ฆฌ์ŠคํŠธ ์ฝ”๋ฉ˜ํŠธ ์ˆ˜์ค€.
๐Ÿ“Š 51/100 cyclical catalyst 1y
โš ๏ธ Falsifier (thesis ๋ฐ˜์ „ ์กฐ๊ฑด): broker coverage 1๊ฑด ์ˆ˜์ค€ ํ…”๋ ˆ๊ทธ๋žจ ์š”์•ฝ์œผ๋กœ ์‹ ๋ขฐ๋„ ๋‚ฎ์Œ โ€” ์ •์‹ ๋ฆฌํฌํŠธยท์‹ค์  ํ™•์ธ ํ•„์š”
๐Ÿ“‹ chain yaml snippet (vault์— ์ถ”๊ฐ€)
  - chain_id: mark-20260818-watch-yaml-0
    name: ์‚ผ์„ฑSDI โ€” GM JV ์ฒญ์‚ฐ์œผ๋กœ ็พŽ ์ƒ์‚ฐ๋Šฅ๋ ฅ ํ™•๋ณด, ESS LFP ์ „ํ™˜ยท์œ ๋Ÿฝ ์ ์œ ์œจ ํ™•๋Œ€ ๊ธฐ๋Œ€
    L0_trend: GM๊ณผ์˜ JV ์ฒญ์‚ฐ์œผ๋กœ ๋ฏธ๊ตญ ๋‚ด ์ƒ์‚ฐ๋Šฅ๋ ฅ ๋ถ€์กฑ ๋ฌธ์ œ ํ•ด์†Œ, ESS LFP ๋ผ์ธ ์ „ํ™˜ ์‹œ ์ถ”๊ฐ€ capa ํ™•๋ณด ๊ฐ€๋Šฅ. ์œ ๋Ÿฝ EV ์ ์œ ์œจ ํ™•๋Œ€ ๊ธฐ๋Œ€๊ฐ์ด ์žˆ์œผ๋‚˜ ์ •๋Ÿ‰ ์‹ค์  ๋ฐ์ดํ„ฐ ๋ถ€์žฌํ•œ ์• ๋„๋ฆฌ์ŠคํŠธ ์ฝ”๋ฉ˜ํŠธ ์ˆ˜์ค€.
    L1_industry: TODO
    L2_bottleneck:
      - TODO
    L3_primary:
      KR:
        - {name: ์‚ผ์„ฑSDI, code: '006400'}
      Global: []
    L4_picks_shovels:
      KR: []
      Global: []
    L5_ecosystem:
      KR: []
      Global: []
    horizon: 1-3y
    confidence: low
    related_chains: []
    sources:
      - "2026-08-18 Claude marking (watch)"
    notes: |
      GM๊ณผ์˜ JV ์ฒญ์‚ฐ์œผ๋กœ ๋ฏธ๊ตญ ๋‚ด ์ƒ์‚ฐ๋Šฅ๋ ฅ ๋ถ€์กฑ ๋ฌธ์ œ ํ•ด์†Œ, ESS LFP ๋ผ์ธ ์ „ํ™˜ ์‹œ ์ถ”๊ฐ€ capa ํ™•๋ณด ๊ฐ€๋Šฅ. ์œ ๋Ÿฝ EV ์ ์œ ์œจ ํ™•๋Œ€ ๊ธฐ๋Œ€๊ฐ์ด ์žˆ์œผ๋‚˜ ์ •๋Ÿ‰ ์‹ค์  ๋ฐ์ดํ„ฐ ๋ถ€์žฌํ•œ ์• ๋„๋ฆฌ์ŠคํŠธ ์ฝ”๋ฉ˜ํŠธ ์ˆ˜์ค€.
๐Ÿ“Œ Watch battery

์•Œ๋ฒ„๋ง ์ปจ์ฝœ โ€” ๋ฆฌํŠฌ ์ˆ˜๊ธ‰ํƒ€์ดํŠธ ์žฌํ™•์ธ, 26๋…„ ์ˆ˜์š” +45% ESS ๊ฒฌ์ธ

๊ธ€๋กœ๋ฒŒ ๋ฆฌํŠฌ 1์œ„ ์•Œ๋ฒ„๋ง์ด ์žฌ๊ณ  ์ˆ˜์ค€ ํ‰๋…„ ํ•˜ํšŒ, ESS ์ˆ˜์š” ๊ฒฌ์ธ ์ˆ˜๊ธ‰ ํƒ€์ดํŠธ ์ง€์†์„ ์ปจ์ฝœ์—์„œ ์–ธ๊ธ‰. ๊ตญ๋‚ด 2์ฐจ์ „์ง€ ์†Œ์žฌ(์—์ฝ”ํ”„๋กœ ๋“ฑ) ๊ฐ€๊ฒฉ ๋ฐ˜๋“ฑ ๊ฐ€๋Šฅ์„ฑ์ด๋‚˜ ๊ตญ๋‚ด ์ข…๋ชฉ ์ง์ ‘ trace ๋ถ€์žฌ.
๐Ÿ“Š 50/100 cyclical catalyst 6m
โš ๏ธ Falsifier (thesis ๋ฐ˜์ „ ์กฐ๊ฑด): ์‹ ๊ทœ ๊ณต๊ธ‰ ํ”„๋กœ์ ํŠธ๊ฐ€ ์˜ˆ์ƒ๋ณด๋‹ค ๋นจ๋ฆฌ ๊ฐ€๋™๋˜๋ฉด ์žฌ๊ณ  ํƒ€์ดํŠธ ํ•ด์†Œ
๐Ÿ“‹ chain yaml snippet (vault์— ์ถ”๊ฐ€)
  - chain_id: mark-20260818-watch-yaml-1
    name: ์•Œ๋ฒ„๋ง ์ปจ์ฝœ โ€” ๋ฆฌํŠฌ ์ˆ˜๊ธ‰ํƒ€์ดํŠธ ์žฌํ™•์ธ, 26๋…„ ์ˆ˜์š” +45% ESS ๊ฒฌ์ธ
    L0_trend: ๊ธ€๋กœ๋ฒŒ ๋ฆฌํŠฌ 1์œ„ ์•Œ๋ฒ„๋ง์ด ์žฌ๊ณ  ์ˆ˜์ค€ ํ‰๋…„ ํ•˜ํšŒ, ESS ์ˆ˜์š” ๊ฒฌ์ธ ์ˆ˜๊ธ‰ ํƒ€์ดํŠธ ์ง€์†์„ ์ปจ์ฝœ์—์„œ ์–ธ๊ธ‰. ๊ตญ๋‚ด 2์ฐจ์ „์ง€ ์†Œ์žฌ(์—์ฝ”ํ”„๋กœ ๋“ฑ) ๊ฐ€๊ฒฉ ๋ฐ˜๋“ฑ ๊ฐ€๋Šฅ์„ฑ์ด๋‚˜ ๊ตญ๋‚ด ์ข…๋ชฉ ์ง์ ‘ trace ๋ถ€์žฌ.
    L1_industry: TODO
    L2_bottleneck:
      - TODO
    L3_primary:
      KR:
      Global: []
    L4_picks_shovels:
      KR: []
      Global: []
    L5_ecosystem:
      KR: []
      Global: []
    horizon: 1-3y
    confidence: low
    related_chains: []
    sources:
      - "2026-08-18 Claude marking (watch)"
    notes: |
      ๊ธ€๋กœ๋ฒŒ ๋ฆฌํŠฌ 1์œ„ ์•Œ๋ฒ„๋ง์ด ์žฌ๊ณ  ์ˆ˜์ค€ ํ‰๋…„ ํ•˜ํšŒ, ESS ์ˆ˜์š” ๊ฒฌ์ธ ์ˆ˜๊ธ‰ ํƒ€์ดํŠธ ์ง€์†์„ ์ปจ์ฝœ์—์„œ ์–ธ๊ธ‰. ๊ตญ๋‚ด 2์ฐจ์ „์ง€ ์†Œ์žฌ(์—์ฝ”ํ”„๋กœ ๋“ฑ) ๊ฐ€๊ฒฉ ๋ฐ˜๋“ฑ ๊ฐ€๋Šฅ์„ฑ์ด๋‚˜ ๊ตญ๋‚ด ์ข…๋ชฉ ์ง์ ‘ trace ๋ถ€์žฌ.
๐Ÿ“Œ Watch mark-20260518-staged-0 shipbuilding

๋ฏธ ํ•จ์ • ํ•ด์™ธ๊ฑด์กฐ NSPM ์„œ๋ช… โ€” ๋ฏธ ์ „ํˆฌํ•จ๊นŒ์ง€ ํ™•๋Œ€ ๊ฐ€๋Šฅ์„ฑ, K-์กฐ์„  ๋ฐฉ์‚ฐ ์ˆ˜์ฃผ ์ž ์žฌ ์ด‰๋งค

ํŠธ๋Ÿผํ”„ ๊ตญ๊ฐ€์•ˆ๋ณด ๋Œ€ํ†ต๋ น๊ฐ์„œ(NSPM) ์„œ๋ช…์œผ๋กœ ๊ตญ๊ฐ€์•ˆ๋ณด ์˜ˆ์™ธ์กฐํ•ญ ํ™œ์šฉํ•œ ๋ฏธ ํ•จ์ • ํ•ด์™ธ๊ฑด์กฐ ๊ธธ ์—ด๋ฆผ, ์ „ํˆฌํ•จ ๊ฑด์กฐ๊นŒ์ง€ ํ™•์žฅ ๊ฐ€๋Šฅ์„ฑ ๋…ผ์˜. HDํ•œ๊ตญ์กฐ์„ ํ•ด์–‘ยทํ•œํ™”์˜ค์…˜ ๋“ฑ K-์กฐ์„ /๋ฐฉ์‚ฐ backlog ํ™•๋Œ€ ์ž ์žฌ ์ด‰๋งค์ด๋‚˜ ์•„์ง ๊ตฌ์ฒด์  ๊ณ„์•ฝยทMOU๋Š” ์—†์Œ.
๐Ÿ“Š 60/100 secular catalyst 1y
backlog
high
โš ๏ธ Falsifier (thesis ๋ฐ˜์ „ ์กฐ๊ฑด): [secular-evidence=1] | ๋ฏธ ์˜ํšŒยทํ•ด๊ตฐ ๋‚ด ๋ฐ˜๋Œ€๋กœ ์ „ํˆฌํ•จ ํ•ด์™ธ๊ฑด์กฐ ํ™•๋Œ€๊ฐ€ ์ขŒ์ดˆ๋˜๊ฑฐ๋‚˜ ์ •์น˜์  ์ด์Šˆ๋กœ ์ง€์—ฐ๋˜๋ฉด thesis ์•ฝํ™”. โš”๏ธ ์˜๋„์  ๋„์ „: ๋ฏธ ์กฐ์„ ์—…๊ณ„ ๋…ธ์กฐยท์ •์น˜ ๋ฐ˜๋Œ€๊ฐ€ ์ปค ์‹ค์ œ ๊ณ„์•ฝ ์ „ํ™˜๊นŒ์ง€๋Š” ์‹œ๊ฐ„์ด ์˜ค๋ž˜ ๊ฑธ๋ฆด ์ˆ˜ ์žˆ์Œ
๐Ÿ“‹ chain yaml snippet (vault์— ์ถ”๊ฐ€)
  - chain_id: mark-20260818-watch-yaml-2
    name: ๋ฏธ ํ•จ์ • ํ•ด์™ธ๊ฑด์กฐ NSPM ์„œ๋ช… โ€” ๋ฏธ ์ „ํˆฌํ•จ๊นŒ์ง€ ํ™•๋Œ€ ๊ฐ€๋Šฅ์„ฑ, K-์กฐ์„  ๋ฐฉ์‚ฐ ์ˆ˜์ฃผ ์ž ์žฌ ์ด‰๋งค
    L0_trend: ํŠธ๋Ÿผํ”„ ๊ตญ๊ฐ€์•ˆ๋ณด ๋Œ€ํ†ต๋ น๊ฐ์„œ(NSPM) ์„œ๋ช…์œผ๋กœ ๊ตญ๊ฐ€์•ˆ๋ณด ์˜ˆ์™ธ์กฐํ•ญ ํ™œ์šฉํ•œ ๋ฏธ ํ•จ์ • ํ•ด์™ธ๊ฑด์กฐ ๊ธธ ์—ด๋ฆผ, ์ „ํˆฌํ•จ ๊ฑด์กฐ๊นŒ์ง€ ํ™•์žฅ ๊ฐ€๋Šฅ์„ฑ ๋…ผ์˜. HDํ•œ๊ตญ์กฐ์„ ํ•ด์–‘ยทํ•œํ™”์˜ค์…˜ ๋“ฑ K-์กฐ์„ /๋ฐฉ์‚ฐ backlog ํ™•๋Œ€ ์ž ์žฌ ์ด‰๋งค์ด๋‚˜ ์•„
    L1_industry: TODO
    L2_bottleneck:
      - TODO
    L3_primary:
      KR:
        - {name: HDํ•œ๊ตญ์กฐ์„ ํ•ด์–‘, code: '009540'}
        - {name: HDํ˜„๋Œ€์ค‘๊ณต์—…, code: '329180'}
        - {name: ํ•œํ™”์—์–ด๋กœ์ŠคํŽ˜์ด์Šค, code: '012450'}
      Global: []
    L4_picks_shovels:
      KR: []
      Global: []
    L5_ecosystem:
      KR: []
      Global: []
    horizon: 1-3y
    confidence: low
    related_chains: []
    sources:
      - "2026-08-18 Claude marking (watch)"
    notes: |
      ํŠธ๋Ÿผํ”„ ๊ตญ๊ฐ€์•ˆ๋ณด ๋Œ€ํ†ต๋ น๊ฐ์„œ(NSPM) ์„œ๋ช…์œผ๋กœ ๊ตญ๊ฐ€์•ˆ๋ณด ์˜ˆ์™ธ์กฐํ•ญ ํ™œ์šฉํ•œ ๋ฏธ ํ•จ์ • ํ•ด์™ธ๊ฑด์กฐ ๊ธธ ์—ด๋ฆผ, ์ „ํˆฌํ•จ ๊ฑด์กฐ๊นŒ์ง€ ํ™•์žฅ ๊ฐ€๋Šฅ์„ฑ ๋…ผ์˜. HDํ•œ๊ตญ์กฐ์„ ํ•ด์–‘ยทํ•œํ™”์˜ค์…˜ ๋“ฑ K-์กฐ์„ /๋ฐฉ์‚ฐ backlog ํ™•๋Œ€ ์ž ์žฌ ์ด‰๋งค์ด๋‚˜ ์•„์ง ๊ตฌ์ฒด์  ๊ณ„์•ฝยทMOU๋Š” ์—†์Œ.
๐Ÿ“Œ Watch mark-20260518-staged-0 defense

๋ฏธ ํ•ด๊ตฐ-RTX $22.9B Tomahawk 7๋…„ ์žฅ๊ธฐ๊ณ„์•ฝ โ€” ๋ฏธ ๋ฐฉ์‚ฐ ์ƒ์‚ฐ๋Šฅ๋ ฅ ํ™•๋Œ€, K-๋ฐฉ์‚ฐ ์„œํ”Œ๋ผ์ด์ฒด์ธ ํŒŒ๊ธ‰ ๊ฐ€๋Šฅ์„ฑ ๋‚ฎ๊ฒŒ ํ‰๊ฐ€

๋ฏธ ํ•ด๊ตฐ์˜ ๋Œ€๊ทœ๋ชจ ์žฅ๊ธฐ ๋ฌด๊ธฐ ์กฐ๋‹ฌ๊ณ„์•ฝ์œผ๋กœ ๋ฏธ ๋ฐฉ์‚ฐ ์ƒ์‚ฐ ํ™•๋Œ€ ์ง€์†์„ ์žฌํ™•์ธํ•˜๋‚˜, ๋ณธ๋ฌธ์ƒ ํ•œ๊ตญ ๊ธฐ์—… trace ๋ถ€์žฌ. ๋ฏธ ํ•จ์ • ํ•ด์™ธ๊ฑด์กฐ(ํ•œ๊ตญ ์กฐ์„ ์†Œ ํ™œ์šฉ) ๋ฐ SM-3 ๋ณด์ž‰ยทRTX ํ˜‘์ •(#31)๊ณผ ํ•จ๊ป˜ ๋ฏธ๊ตญ ๋ฐฉ์‚ฐ ์„œํ”Œ๋ผ์ด์ฒด์ธ ํ™•์žฅ ๊ธฐ์กฐ๋งŒ ํ™•์ธ, ์ง์ ‘ K-๋ฐฉ์‚ฐ ์‹ค์  ์—ฐ๊ฒฐ๊ณ ๋ฆฌ๋Š” ์•ฝํ•จ.
๐Ÿ“Š 52/100 secular catalyst 1y
โš ๏ธ Falsifier (thesis ๋ฐ˜์ „ ์กฐ๊ฑด): [secular-evidence=1] | ๋ฏธ๊ตญ ์ž๊ตญ ๋ฐฉ์‚ฐ ์ƒ์‚ฐ๋Šฅ๋ ฅ์ด ๊ณ„ํš๋Œ€๋กœ ํ™•๋Œ€๋˜๋ฉด ํ•œ๊ตญ ์กฐ์„ ยท๋ฐฉ์‚ฐ ์œ„ํƒ ์ˆ˜์š”๊ฐ€ ์ถ•์†Œ๋  ๊ฐ€๋Šฅ์„ฑ
๐Ÿ“‹ chain yaml snippet (vault์— ์ถ”๊ฐ€)
  - chain_id: mark-20260818-watch-yaml-3
    name: ๋ฏธ ํ•ด๊ตฐ-RTX $22.9B Tomahawk 7๋…„ ์žฅ๊ธฐ๊ณ„์•ฝ โ€” ๋ฏธ ๋ฐฉ์‚ฐ ์ƒ์‚ฐ๋Šฅ๋ ฅ ํ™•๋Œ€, K-๋ฐฉ์‚ฐ ์„œํ”Œ๋ผ์ด์ฒด์ธ ํŒŒ๊ธ‰ ๊ฐ€๋Šฅ์„ฑ ๋‚ฎ๊ฒŒ ํ‰๊ฐ€
    L0_trend: ๋ฏธ ํ•ด๊ตฐ์˜ ๋Œ€๊ทœ๋ชจ ์žฅ๊ธฐ ๋ฌด๊ธฐ ์กฐ๋‹ฌ๊ณ„์•ฝ์œผ๋กœ ๋ฏธ ๋ฐฉ์‚ฐ ์ƒ์‚ฐ ํ™•๋Œ€ ์ง€์†์„ ์žฌํ™•์ธํ•˜๋‚˜, ๋ณธ๋ฌธ์ƒ ํ•œ๊ตญ ๊ธฐ์—… trace ๋ถ€์žฌ. ๋ฏธ ํ•จ์ • ํ•ด์™ธ๊ฑด์กฐ(ํ•œ๊ตญ ์กฐ์„ ์†Œ ํ™œ์šฉ) ๋ฐ SM-3 ๋ณด์ž‰ยทRTX ํ˜‘์ •(#31)๊ณผ ํ•จ๊ป˜ ๋ฏธ๊ตญ ๋ฐฉ์‚ฐ ์„œํ”Œ
    L1_industry: TODO
    L2_bottleneck:
      - TODO
    L3_primary:
      KR:
      Global: []
    L4_picks_shovels:
      KR: []
      Global: []
    L5_ecosystem:
      KR: []
      Global: []
    horizon: 1-3y
    confidence: low
    related_chains: []
    sources:
      - "2026-08-18 Claude marking (watch)"
    notes: |
      ๋ฏธ ํ•ด๊ตฐ์˜ ๋Œ€๊ทœ๋ชจ ์žฅ๊ธฐ ๋ฌด๊ธฐ ์กฐ๋‹ฌ๊ณ„์•ฝ์œผ๋กœ ๋ฏธ ๋ฐฉ์‚ฐ ์ƒ์‚ฐ ํ™•๋Œ€ ์ง€์†์„ ์žฌํ™•์ธํ•˜๋‚˜, ๋ณธ๋ฌธ์ƒ ํ•œ๊ตญ ๊ธฐ์—… trace ๋ถ€์žฌ. ๋ฏธ ํ•จ์ • ํ•ด์™ธ๊ฑด์กฐ(ํ•œ๊ตญ ์กฐ์„ ์†Œ ํ™œ์šฉ) ๋ฐ SM-3 ๋ณด์ž‰ยทRTX ํ˜‘์ •(#31)๊ณผ ํ•จ๊ป˜ ๋ฏธ๊ตญ ๋ฐฉ์‚ฐ ์„œํ”Œ๋ผ์ด์ฒด์ธ ํ™•์žฅ ๊ธฐ์กฐ๋งŒ ํ™•์ธ, ์ง์ ‘ K-๋ฐฉ์‚ฐ ์‹ค์  ์—ฐ๊ฒฐ๊ณ ๋ฆฌ๋Š” ์•ฝํ•จ.
๐Ÿ“Œ Watch ai-power-bottleneck semiconductor

์•คํŠธ๋กœํ”ฝ 2Q26 ๋งค์ถœ YoY 14๋ฐฐ ๊ธ‰์ฆ($11.5B+) โ€” AI ์ถ”๋ก  ์ธํ”„๋ผ ์ˆ˜์ตํ™” ๊ฐ€์†, ๋ฉ”๋ชจ๋ฆฌยท๊ด‘ํ†ต์‹  ๊ตญ๋‚ด ์ฒด์ธ ํ›ˆํ’

์•คํŠธ๋กœํ”ฝ ๋งค์ถœ ํญ์ฆ์ด ๊ตญ๋‚ด ๋ฉ”๋ชจ๋ฆฌยท๊ด‘ํ†ต์‹ (SKํ•˜์ด๋‹‰์Šค ๋“ฑ) ๊ธ‰๋“ฑ ์ด‰๋ฐœ ์žฌ๋ฃŒ๋กœ ์ธ์šฉ๋จ. AI ๋ชจ๋ธ ์‚ฌ์šฉ๋Ÿ‰ ์ฆ๊ฐ€๊ฐ€ GPUยท๋ฉ”๋ชจ๋ฆฌ ์ˆ˜์š”๋กœ ์ง๊ฒฐ๋˜๋Š” ai-power-bottleneck L0 ์„œ์‚ฌ๋ฅผ ๋’ท๋ฐ›์นจํ•˜๋‚˜, ๊ตญ๋‚ด ์ข…๋ชฉ ์‹ค์  ์ „์ด๋Š” ๊ฐ„์ ‘์ .
๐Ÿ“Š 58/100 secular catalyst 3m
โš ๏ธ Falsifier (thesis ๋ฐ˜์ „ ์กฐ๊ฑด): [secular-evidence=1] | ๋น„์ƒ์žฅ ๋งค์ถœ ์ง€ํ‘œ๋Š” ๊ฒ€์ฆ ์–ด๋ ค์›€ โ€” IPO S-1 ๋“ฑ ๊ณต์‹ ์žฌ๋ฌด์ œํ‘œ ๊ณต๊ฐœ ์‹œ ์ˆซ์ž ํ•˜ํšŒํ•˜๋ฉด ๋ฐ˜์ „
๐Ÿ“‹ chain yaml snippet (vault์— ์ถ”๊ฐ€)
  - chain_id: mark-20260818-watch-yaml-4
    name: ์•คํŠธ๋กœํ”ฝ 2Q26 ๋งค์ถœ YoY 14๋ฐฐ ๊ธ‰์ฆ($11.5B+) โ€” AI ์ถ”๋ก  ์ธํ”„๋ผ ์ˆ˜์ตํ™” ๊ฐ€์†, ๋ฉ”๋ชจ๋ฆฌยท๊ด‘ํ†ต์‹  ๊ตญ๋‚ด ์ฒด์ธ ํ›ˆํ’
    L0_trend: ์•คํŠธ๋กœํ”ฝ ๋งค์ถœ ํญ์ฆ์ด ๊ตญ๋‚ด ๋ฉ”๋ชจ๋ฆฌยท๊ด‘ํ†ต์‹ (SKํ•˜์ด๋‹‰์Šค ๋“ฑ) ๊ธ‰๋“ฑ ์ด‰๋ฐœ ์žฌ๋ฃŒ๋กœ ์ธ์šฉ๋จ. AI ๋ชจ๋ธ ์‚ฌ์šฉ๋Ÿ‰ ์ฆ๊ฐ€๊ฐ€ GPUยท๋ฉ”๋ชจ๋ฆฌ ์ˆ˜์š”๋กœ ์ง๊ฒฐ๋˜๋Š” ai-power-bottleneck L0 ์„œ์‚ฌ๋ฅผ ๋’ท๋ฐ›์นจํ•˜๋‚˜, ๊ตญ๋‚ด ์ข…๋ชฉ ์‹ค
    L1_industry: TODO
    L2_bottleneck:
      - TODO
    L3_primary:
      KR:
        - {name: SKํ•˜์ด๋‹‰์Šค, code: '000660'}
      Global: []
    L4_picks_shovels:
      KR: []
      Global: []
    L5_ecosystem:
      KR: []
      Global: []
    horizon: 1-3y
    confidence: low
    related_chains: []
    sources:
      - "2026-08-18 Claude marking (watch)"
    notes: |
      ์•คํŠธ๋กœํ”ฝ ๋งค์ถœ ํญ์ฆ์ด ๊ตญ๋‚ด ๋ฉ”๋ชจ๋ฆฌยท๊ด‘ํ†ต์‹ (SKํ•˜์ด๋‹‰์Šค ๋“ฑ) ๊ธ‰๋“ฑ ์ด‰๋ฐœ ์žฌ๋ฃŒ๋กœ ์ธ์šฉ๋จ. AI ๋ชจ๋ธ ์‚ฌ์šฉ๋Ÿ‰ ์ฆ๊ฐ€๊ฐ€ GPUยท๋ฉ”๋ชจ๋ฆฌ ์ˆ˜์š”๋กœ ์ง๊ฒฐ๋˜๋Š” ai-power-bottleneck L0 ์„œ์‚ฌ๋ฅผ ๋’ท๋ฐ›์นจํ•˜๋‚˜, ๊ตญ๋‚ด ์ข…๋ชฉ ์‹ค์  ์ „์ด๋Š” ๊ฐ„์ ‘์ .
๐Ÿ“Œ Watch ai-power-bottleneck power

NVIDIA-OpenAI ์˜คํ•˜์ด์˜ค 8-10GW ๋ฐ์ดํ„ฐ์„ผํ„ฐ, ์ตœ๋Œ€ $100B ์‹ ์šฉ๋ณด์ฆ ํ˜‘์ƒ โ€” AI capex paradigm ์žฌํ™•์ธ

NVIDIA๊ฐ€ SB Energy ๋ถ€์ง€ยท์ „๋ ฅยท๊ฑด๋ฌผ(LPS)์— ์‹ ์šฉ๋ณด์ฆ์„ ์ œ๊ณตํ•˜๋ฉฐ OpenAI ์˜คํ•˜์ด์˜ค ์บ ํผ์Šค(์ดˆ๊ธฐ 4.25GW, ์ตœ์ข… 8-10GW) ๊ตฌ์ถ•์„ ์ง€์›, $100B ๊ทœ๋ชจ ์‹ ์šฉ๋ณด์ฆ ํ˜‘์ƒ ์ตœ์ข… ๋‹จ๊ณ„. Hyperscaler capex ํ™•์žฅ ์ง€์†์„ ์žฌํ™•์ธํ•˜๋‚˜ ์ง์ ‘์  ํ•œ๊ตญ ์ข…๋ชฉ trace๋Š” ์•ฝํ•จ(์ „๋ ฅ๊ธฐ๊ธฐยท๋ณ€์••๊ธฐ 2์ฐจ ์ˆ˜ํ˜œ ๊ฐ€๋Šฅ์„ฑ๋งŒ ์กด์žฌ).
๐Ÿ“Š 55/100 secular catalyst 1y
โš ๏ธ Falsifier (thesis ๋ฐ˜์ „ ์กฐ๊ฑด): [secular-evidence=1] | OpenAI ์ž๊ธˆ์กฐ๋‹ฌ ์‹คํŒจ๋‚˜ ์‹ ์šฉ๋ณด์ฆ ๊ณ„์•ฝ ์ฒ ํšŒ ์‹œ capex ๊ฐ€์† ์„œ์‚ฌ ๋ฐ˜์ „
๐Ÿ“‹ chain yaml snippet (vault์— ์ถ”๊ฐ€)
  - chain_id: mark-20260818-watch-yaml-5
    name: NVIDIA-OpenAI ์˜คํ•˜์ด์˜ค 8-10GW ๋ฐ์ดํ„ฐ์„ผํ„ฐ, ์ตœ๋Œ€ $100B ์‹ ์šฉ๋ณด์ฆ ํ˜‘์ƒ โ€” AI capex paradigm ์žฌํ™•์ธ
    L0_trend: NVIDIA๊ฐ€ SB Energy ๋ถ€์ง€ยท์ „๋ ฅยท๊ฑด๋ฌผ(LPS)์— ์‹ ์šฉ๋ณด์ฆ์„ ์ œ๊ณตํ•˜๋ฉฐ OpenAI ์˜คํ•˜์ด์˜ค ์บ ํผ์Šค(์ดˆ๊ธฐ 4.25GW, ์ตœ์ข… 8-10GW) ๊ตฌ์ถ•์„ ์ง€์›, $100B ๊ทœ๋ชจ ์‹ ์šฉ๋ณด์ฆ ํ˜‘์ƒ ์ตœ์ข… ๋‹จ๊ณ„. Hypers
    L1_industry: TODO
    L2_bottleneck:
      - TODO
    L3_primary:
      KR:
      Global: []
    L4_picks_shovels:
      KR: []
      Global: []
    L5_ecosystem:
      KR: []
      Global: []
    horizon: 1-3y
    confidence: low
    related_chains: []
    sources:
      - "2026-08-18 Claude marking (watch)"
    notes: |
      NVIDIA๊ฐ€ SB Energy ๋ถ€์ง€ยท์ „๋ ฅยท๊ฑด๋ฌผ(LPS)์— ์‹ ์šฉ๋ณด์ฆ์„ ์ œ๊ณตํ•˜๋ฉฐ OpenAI ์˜คํ•˜์ด์˜ค ์บ ํผ์Šค(์ดˆ๊ธฐ 4.25GW, ์ตœ์ข… 8-10GW) ๊ตฌ์ถ•์„ ์ง€์›, $100B ๊ทœ๋ชจ ์‹ ์šฉ๋ณด์ฆ ํ˜‘์ƒ ์ตœ์ข… ๋‹จ๊ณ„. Hyperscaler capex ํ™•์žฅ ์ง€์†์„ ์žฌํ™•์ธํ•˜๋‚˜ ์ง์ ‘์  ํ•œ๊ตญ ์ข…๋ชฉ trace๋Š” ์•ฝํ•จ(์ „๋ ฅ๊ธฐ๊ธฐยท๋ณ€์••๊ธฐ 2์ฐจ ์ˆ˜ํ˜œ ๊ฐ€๋Šฅ์„ฑ๋งŒ ์กด์žฌ).
๐Ÿ“Œ Watch ai-substrate semiconductor

๋ฏธ์“ฐ์ด๊ธˆ์† ๊ทน๋ฐ•๋™๋ฐ•(MicroThin) 2033๋…„๊นŒ์ง€ ์ถ”๊ฐ€ ์ฆ์„ค โ€” AI ๋ฐ์ดํ„ฐ์„ผํ„ฐยท๋ฐ˜๋„์ฒด ๊ธฐํŒ ์ˆ˜๊ธ‰ ํƒ€์ดํŠธ ์‹ฌํ™”

๋ฏธ์“ฐ์ด๊ธˆ์†์ด 8์›” 7์ผ 2030๋…„ ์ฆ์‚ฐ ๋ฐœํ‘œ์— ์ด์–ด 2033๋…„๊นŒ์ง€ ์žฌ์ฐจ ์ฆ์„ค(FY25 ๋Œ€๋น„ 2.4๋ฐฐ)์„ ๋ฐœํ‘œ, ๊ธ€๋กœ๋ฒŒ 1์œ„ ์‚ฌ์—…์ž์˜ ๋ฐ˜๋ณต ์ฆ์„ค์€ ๊ทน๋ฐ•๋™๋ฐ• ์ˆ˜์š”๊ฐ€ ๊ณต๊ธ‰์„ ๊ณ„์† ์•ž์„œ๋Š” ๊ตฌ์กฐ์  ์‹ ํ˜ธ. ai-substrate ์ฒด์ธ์˜ ๊ธฐํŒยท์†Œ์žฌ ๋ณ‘๋ชฉ์ด ๊ตญ๋‚ด ์ฝ”๋ฆฌ์•„์จํ‚คํŠธยท์‹ฌํ… ๋“ฑ ํ›„๊ณต์ •ยท๊ธฐํŒ ๋ฐธ๋ฅ˜์ฒด์ธ ์ด์ต ๋ชจ๋ฉ˜ํ…€์œผ๋กœ ์ „์ด๋  ๊ฐ€๋Šฅ์„ฑ.
๐Ÿ“Š 62/100 secular catalyst 6m
backlog
high
โš ๏ธ Falsifier (thesis ๋ฐ˜์ „ ์กฐ๊ฑด): [secular-evidence=1] | ๋™๋ฐ• ๊ฐ€๊ฒฉ์ด ์•ˆ์ •ํ™”๋˜๊ฑฐ๋‚˜ ๊ฒฝ์Ÿ์‚ฌ(SKC ๋“ฑ) ์ฆ์„ค ๋Ÿฌ์‹œ๋กœ ๊ณต๊ธ‰ ๊ณผ์ž‰ ์ „ํ™˜ ์‹œ thesis ๋ฐ˜์ „
๐Ÿ“‹ chain yaml snippet (vault์— ์ถ”๊ฐ€)
  - chain_id: mark-20260818-watch-yaml-6
    name: ๋ฏธ์“ฐ์ด๊ธˆ์† ๊ทน๋ฐ•๋™๋ฐ•(MicroThin) 2033๋…„๊นŒ์ง€ ์ถ”๊ฐ€ ์ฆ์„ค โ€” AI ๋ฐ์ดํ„ฐ์„ผํ„ฐยท๋ฐ˜๋„์ฒด ๊ธฐํŒ ์ˆ˜๊ธ‰ ํƒ€์ดํŠธ ์‹ฌํ™”
    L0_trend: ๋ฏธ์“ฐ์ด๊ธˆ์†์ด 8์›” 7์ผ 2030๋…„ ์ฆ์‚ฐ ๋ฐœํ‘œ์— ์ด์–ด 2033๋…„๊นŒ์ง€ ์žฌ์ฐจ ์ฆ์„ค(FY25 ๋Œ€๋น„ 2.4๋ฐฐ)์„ ๋ฐœํ‘œ, ๊ธ€๋กœ๋ฒŒ 1์œ„ ์‚ฌ์—…์ž์˜ ๋ฐ˜๋ณต ์ฆ์„ค์€ ๊ทน๋ฐ•๋™๋ฐ• ์ˆ˜์š”๊ฐ€ ๊ณต๊ธ‰์„ ๊ณ„์† ์•ž์„œ๋Š” ๊ตฌ์กฐ์  ์‹ ํ˜ธ. ai-substrat
    L1_industry: TODO
    L2_bottleneck:
      - TODO
    L3_primary:
      KR:
        - {name: ์ฝ”๋ฆฌ์•„์จํ‚คํŠธ, code: '007810'}
        - {name: ์‹ฌํ…, code: '222800'}
      Global: []
    L4_picks_shovels:
      KR: []
      Global: []
    L5_ecosystem:
      KR: []
      Global: []
    horizon: 1-3y
    confidence: low
    related_chains: []
    sources:
      - "2026-08-18 Claude marking (watch)"
    notes: |
      ๋ฏธ์“ฐ์ด๊ธˆ์†์ด 8์›” 7์ผ 2030๋…„ ์ฆ์‚ฐ ๋ฐœํ‘œ์— ์ด์–ด 2033๋…„๊นŒ์ง€ ์žฌ์ฐจ ์ฆ์„ค(FY25 ๋Œ€๋น„ 2.4๋ฐฐ)์„ ๋ฐœํ‘œ, ๊ธ€๋กœ๋ฒŒ 1์œ„ ์‚ฌ์—…์ž์˜ ๋ฐ˜๋ณต ์ฆ์„ค์€ ๊ทน๋ฐ•๋™๋ฐ• ์ˆ˜์š”๊ฐ€ ๊ณต๊ธ‰์„ ๊ณ„์† ์•ž์„œ๋Š” ๊ตฌ์กฐ์  ์‹ ํ˜ธ. ai-substrate ์ฒด์ธ์˜ ๊ธฐํŒยท์†Œ์žฌ ๋ณ‘๋ชฉ์ด ๊ตญ๋‚ด ์ฝ”๋ฆฌ์•„์จํ‚คํŠธยท์‹ฌํ… ๋“ฑ ํ›„๊ณต์ •ยท๊ธฐํŒ ๋ฐธ๋ฅ˜์ฒด์ธ ์ด์ต ๋ชจ๋ฉ˜ํ…€์œผ๋กœ ์ „์ด๋  ๊ฐ€๋Šฅ์„ฑ.