๐Ÿ“Š raki research
๐ŸŽฏ DAILY2026-06-14

๐ŸŽฏ 2026-06-14 DAILY Marking

Claude CLI๊ฐ€ 24h ์‚ฐ์—… ์ด์Šˆ์—์„œ ์ž๋™ ์ถ”์ถœ ยท ๐Ÿ”ฅ 0 / ๐Ÿ“Œ 5 / ๐Ÿ’ก 1

๐Ÿ”ฅ Critical (0๊ฑด)

๐Ÿ“Œ Watch (5๊ฑด)

๐Ÿ“Œ Watch energy

์›์œ  ํˆฌ๊ธฐ ํฌ์ง€์…˜ ๊ฐ์†Œยท๋ธŒ๋ ŒํŠธ์œ  ํ•˜๋ฐฉ ์••๋ ฅ โ€” ์—๋„ˆ์ง€ ๋น„์šฉ ํ•˜๋ฝ ์ˆ˜ํ˜œ ์‚ฐ์—… chain ์ ๊ฒ€

๋ธŒ๋ ŒํŠธ์œ  ์„ ๋ฌผ 87.33๋‹ฌ๋Ÿฌ, ๊ด€๋ฆฌ ์ž๊ธˆ ์ˆœํฌ์ง€์…˜ ๊ฐœ๋ฐฉ์ด์ž์œจ 8.6%๋กœ ์—ฐ์ดˆ ๊ณ ์  ๋Œ€๋น„ ๊ธ‰๊ฐ. ์œ ๊ฐ€ ํ•˜๋ฝ ์‹œ AI ๋ฐ์ดํ„ฐ์„ผํ„ฐ ์ „๋ ฅ ๋น„์šฉยท์กฐ์„  ์šดํ•ญ ๋น„์šฉ ๊ฐœ์„  ๋ฐ ์ด๋ž€ ํ•ตํ•ฉ์˜ ์ž„๋ฐ• ์‹œ ์ถ”๊ฐ€ ํ•˜๋ฐฉ ๊ฐ€๋Šฅ. ์—๋„ˆ์ง€ ๋น„์šฉ ๋ฏผ๊ฐ ์‚ฐ์—…(ํ•ญ๊ณตยทํ•ด์šดยท์„์œ ํ™”ํ•™) ๋‹จ๊ธฐ ๋งˆ์ง„ ๊ฐœ์„  ๋ชจ๋ฉ˜ํ…€.
๐Ÿ“Š 42/100 cyclical catalyst 1m
โš ๏ธ Falsifier (thesis ๋ฐ˜์ „ ์กฐ๊ฑด): ์ด๋ž€ ํ˜‘์ƒ ๊ฒฐ๋ ฌยทOPEC ๊ฐ์‚ฐ ํ™•๋Œ€ ์‹œ ์œ ๊ฐ€ ์žฌ์ƒ์Šน โ†’ ๋น„์šฉ ๊ฐœ์„  thesis ๋ฐ˜์ „.
๐Ÿ“‹ chain yaml snippet (vault์— ์ถ”๊ฐ€)
  - chain_id: mark-20260614-watch-yaml-0
    name: ์›์œ  ํˆฌ๊ธฐ ํฌ์ง€์…˜ ๊ฐ์†Œยท๋ธŒ๋ ŒํŠธ์œ  ํ•˜๋ฐฉ ์••๋ ฅ โ€” ์—๋„ˆ์ง€ ๋น„์šฉ ํ•˜๋ฝ ์ˆ˜ํ˜œ ์‚ฐ์—… chain ์ ๊ฒ€
    L0_trend: ๋ธŒ๋ ŒํŠธ์œ  ์„ ๋ฌผ 87.33๋‹ฌ๋Ÿฌ, ๊ด€๋ฆฌ ์ž๊ธˆ ์ˆœํฌ์ง€์…˜ ๊ฐœ๋ฐฉ์ด์ž์œจ 8.6%๋กœ ์—ฐ์ดˆ ๊ณ ์  ๋Œ€๋น„ ๊ธ‰๊ฐ. ์œ ๊ฐ€ ํ•˜๋ฝ ์‹œ AI ๋ฐ์ดํ„ฐ์„ผํ„ฐ ์ „๋ ฅ ๋น„์šฉยท์กฐ์„  ์šดํ•ญ ๋น„์šฉ ๊ฐœ์„  ๋ฐ ์ด๋ž€ ํ•ตํ•ฉ์˜ ์ž„๋ฐ• ์‹œ ์ถ”๊ฐ€ ํ•˜๋ฐฉ ๊ฐ€๋Šฅ. ์—๋„ˆ์ง€ ๋น„์šฉ ๋ฏผ
    L1_industry: TODO
    L2_bottleneck:
      - TODO
    L3_primary:
      KR:
      Global: []
    L4_picks_shovels:
      KR: []
      Global: []
    L5_ecosystem:
      KR: []
      Global: []
    horizon: 1-3y
    confidence: low
    related_chains: []
    sources:
      - "2026-06-14 Claude marking (watch)"
    notes: |
      ๋ธŒ๋ ŒํŠธ์œ  ์„ ๋ฌผ 87.33๋‹ฌ๋Ÿฌ, ๊ด€๋ฆฌ ์ž๊ธˆ ์ˆœํฌ์ง€์…˜ ๊ฐœ๋ฐฉ์ด์ž์œจ 8.6%๋กœ ์—ฐ์ดˆ ๊ณ ์  ๋Œ€๋น„ ๊ธ‰๊ฐ. ์œ ๊ฐ€ ํ•˜๋ฝ ์‹œ AI ๋ฐ์ดํ„ฐ์„ผํ„ฐ ์ „๋ ฅ ๋น„์šฉยท์กฐ์„  ์šดํ•ญ ๋น„์šฉ ๊ฐœ์„  ๋ฐ ์ด๋ž€ ํ•ตํ•ฉ์˜ ์ž„๋ฐ• ์‹œ ์ถ”๊ฐ€ ํ•˜๋ฐฉ ๊ฐ€๋Šฅ. ์—๋„ˆ์ง€ ๋น„์šฉ ๋ฏผ๊ฐ ์‚ฐ์—…(ํ•ญ๊ณตยทํ•ด์šดยท์„์œ ํ™”ํ•™) ๋‹จ๊ธฐ ๋งˆ์ง„ ๊ฐœ์„  ๋ชจ๋ฉ˜ํ…€.
๐Ÿ“Œ Watch biopharma-cmo bio

AI ์‹ ์•ฝ๊ฐœ๋ฐœ ํŒจ๋Ÿฌ๋‹ค์ž„ ์ „ํ™˜ โ€” ็พŽยทEU ๋™๋ฌผ์‹คํ—˜ ํ์ง€ยทAI ๊ธฐ๋ฐ˜ ํ‰๊ฐ€ ์ฒด๊ณ„ ํ™•๋Œ€ยทK-๋ฐ”์ด์˜ค CDMO ์ˆ˜ํ˜œ

FDA ์ด์–ด EU๋„ ๋™๋ฌผ์‹คํ—˜ ๋‹จ๊ณ„์  ํ์ง€ ๋กœ๋“œ๋งต ๋ฐœํ‘œํ•˜๋ฉฐ AI ๊ธฐ๋ฐ˜ ํ‰๊ฐ€์ฒด๊ณ„ยท๋น„๋™๋ฌผ ์‹œํ—˜๋ฒ• ํ™•๋Œ€. ์‹ ์•ฝ๊ฐœ๋ฐœ ์†๋„ ๊ฐ€์† ์‹œ CMOยทCDMO ์ˆ˜์š” ์ฆ๊ฐ€์™€ ์‚ผ์„ฑ๋ฐ”์ด์˜ค๋กœ์ง์Šค์˜ ๊ธ€๋กœ๋ฒŒ CDMO ์ˆ˜ํ˜œ chain ์ •ํ•ฉ. ์ •ํ›ˆ๋‹˜ ๊ด€์‹ฌ๋“ฑ๋ก(์ผ๋ผ์ด๋ฆด๋ฆฌ GLP-1 ๊ณต๊ฒฉ์  M&Aยท์‚ผ์„ฑ๋ฐ”์ด์˜ค๋กœ์ง์Šค ์ˆ˜ํ˜œ)๊ณผ biopharma-cmo chain ๋ฐฉํ–ฅ์„ฑ ์ผ์น˜.
๐Ÿ“Š 51/100 secular catalyst 6m
โš ๏ธ Falsifier (thesis ๋ฐ˜์ „ ์กฐ๊ฑด): [secular-evidence=1] | AI ์‹ ์•ฝํ‰๊ฐ€ ๊ทœ์ œ ์ˆ˜์šฉ ์ง€์—ฐยท์ž„์ƒ ์‹คํŒจ์œจ ๊ฐœ์„  ๋ฏธํ™•์ธ ์‹œ CDMO ์ˆ˜์š” ๊ฐ€์† thesis ์ง€์—ฐ. broker_coverage_low ๋‹จ์ผ ์†Œ์Šค ์ฃผ์˜.
๐Ÿ“‹ chain yaml snippet (vault์— ์ถ”๊ฐ€)
  - chain_id: mark-20260614-watch-yaml-1
    name: AI ์‹ ์•ฝ๊ฐœ๋ฐœ ํŒจ๋Ÿฌ๋‹ค์ž„ ์ „ํ™˜ โ€” ็พŽยทEU ๋™๋ฌผ์‹คํ—˜ ํ์ง€ยทAI ๊ธฐ๋ฐ˜ ํ‰๊ฐ€ ์ฒด๊ณ„ ํ™•๋Œ€ยทK-๋ฐ”์ด์˜ค CDMO ์ˆ˜ํ˜œ
    L0_trend: FDA ์ด์–ด EU๋„ ๋™๋ฌผ์‹คํ—˜ ๋‹จ๊ณ„์  ํ์ง€ ๋กœ๋“œ๋งต ๋ฐœํ‘œํ•˜๋ฉฐ AI ๊ธฐ๋ฐ˜ ํ‰๊ฐ€์ฒด๊ณ„ยท๋น„๋™๋ฌผ ์‹œํ—˜๋ฒ• ํ™•๋Œ€. ์‹ ์•ฝ๊ฐœ๋ฐœ ์†๋„ ๊ฐ€์† ์‹œ CMOยทCDMO ์ˆ˜์š” ์ฆ๊ฐ€์™€ ์‚ผ์„ฑ๋ฐ”์ด์˜ค๋กœ์ง์Šค์˜ ๊ธ€๋กœ๋ฒŒ CDMO ์ˆ˜ํ˜œ chain ์ •ํ•ฉ. ์ •ํ›ˆ๋‹˜ 
    L1_industry: TODO
    L2_bottleneck:
      - TODO
    L3_primary:
      KR:
        - {name: ์‚ผ์„ฑ๋ฐ”์ด์˜ค๋กœ์ง์Šค, code: '207940'}
      Global: []
    L4_picks_shovels:
      KR: []
      Global: []
    L5_ecosystem:
      KR: []
      Global: []
    horizon: 1-3y
    confidence: low
    related_chains: []
    sources:
      - "2026-06-14 Claude marking (watch)"
    notes: |
      FDA ์ด์–ด EU๋„ ๋™๋ฌผ์‹คํ—˜ ๋‹จ๊ณ„์  ํ์ง€ ๋กœ๋“œ๋งต ๋ฐœํ‘œํ•˜๋ฉฐ AI ๊ธฐ๋ฐ˜ ํ‰๊ฐ€์ฒด๊ณ„ยท๋น„๋™๋ฌผ ์‹œํ—˜๋ฒ• ํ™•๋Œ€. ์‹ ์•ฝ๊ฐœ๋ฐœ ์†๋„ ๊ฐ€์† ์‹œ CMOยทCDMO ์ˆ˜์š” ์ฆ๊ฐ€์™€ ์‚ผ์„ฑ๋ฐ”์ด์˜ค๋กœ์ง์Šค์˜ ๊ธ€๋กœ๋ฒŒ CDMO ์ˆ˜ํ˜œ chain ์ •ํ•ฉ. ์ •ํ›ˆ๋‹˜ ๊ด€์‹ฌ๋“ฑ๋ก(์ผ๋ผ์ด๋ฆด๋ฆฌ GLP-1 ๊ณต๊ฒฉ์  M&Aยท์‚ผ์„ฑ๋ฐ”์ด์˜ค๋กœ์ง์Šค ์ˆ˜ํ˜œ)๊ณผ biopharma-cmo chain ๋ฐฉํ–ฅ์„ฑ ์ผ์น˜.
๐Ÿ“Œ Watch ai-substrate semiconductor

CXMT(์ฐฝ์‹ ๋ฉ”๋ชจ๋ฆฌ) IPO ์ตœ์ข…์Šน์ธ โ€” ์ค‘๊ตญ ๋ฉ”๋ชจ๋ฆฌ ๊ณต๊ธ‰ ๋ณ€์ˆ˜ยทSKํ•˜์ด๋‹‰์Šคยท์‚ผ์„ฑ์ „์ž ๊ฒฝ์Ÿ ๊ฐ•๋„ ์ ๊ฒ€

์ค‘๊ตญ CXMT๊ฐ€ ๊ณผ์ฐฝํŒ IPO ์ตœ์ข… ์Šน์ธ(295์–ต ์œ„์•ˆ ์กฐ๋‹ฌ)์œผ๋กœ 2026๋…„ ์ค‘๊ตญ ์ฆ์‹œ ์ตœ๋Œ€ IPO ์ „๋ง. DRAM ๊ณต๊ธ‰ ๊ฒฝ์Ÿ ์‹ฌํ™” ๋ฆฌ์Šคํฌ์ด๋‚˜, ๋‹จ๊ธฐ(2027๋…„๊นŒ์ง€) HBMยท๊ณ ๋ถ€๊ฐ€ ๋ฉ”๋ชจ๋ฆฌ ๊ณต๊ธ‰๋ถ€์กฑ ๊ตฌ์กฐ๋Š” ์œ ์ง€. ์ •ํ›ˆ๋‹˜ ๊ด€์‹ฌ๋“ฑ๋ก(๋ฉ”๋ชจ๋ฆฌ 2028๋…„ ์šฉ๋Ÿ‰ ์กฐ๊ธฐํ™•๋ณดยท๊ณต๊ธ‰๋ถ€์กฑ 2027๋…„ ํ™•์‹ค)๊ณผ counter-signal๋กœ falsifier ์—ญํ• . SKํ•˜์ด๋‹‰์Šคยท์‚ผ์„ฑ์ „์ž commodity DRAM ๊ฐ€๊ฒฉ์— ์ค‘๊ธฐ ํ•˜๋ฐฉ ์••๋ ฅ ๊ฐ€๋Šฅ์„ฑ.
๐Ÿ“Š 52/100 cyclical catalyst 6m
โš ๏ธ Falsifier (thesis ๋ฐ˜์ „ ์กฐ๊ฑด): CXMT HBM ๊ธฐ์ˆ  ๊ฒฉ์ฐจ(4~5๋…„) ๊ทน๋ณต ๊ฐ€์† + commodity DRAM ๊ฐ€๊ฒฉ ๊ธ‰๋ฝ ์‹œ ํ•œ๊ตญ ๋ฉ”๋ชจ๋ฆฌ OPM ์••๋ฐ• โ†’ ๊ณต๊ธ‰๋ถ€์กฑ thesis ์•ฝํ™”. ๋‹จ HBM์€ ๋‹จ๊ธฐ ๋ฌด๊ด€.
๐Ÿ“‹ chain yaml snippet (vault์— ์ถ”๊ฐ€)
  - chain_id: mark-20260614-watch-yaml-2
    name: CXMT(์ฐฝ์‹ ๋ฉ”๋ชจ๋ฆฌ) IPO ์ตœ์ข…์Šน์ธ โ€” ์ค‘๊ตญ ๋ฉ”๋ชจ๋ฆฌ ๊ณต๊ธ‰ ๋ณ€์ˆ˜ยทSKํ•˜์ด๋‹‰์Šคยท์‚ผ์„ฑ์ „์ž ๊ฒฝ์Ÿ ๊ฐ•๋„ ์ ๊ฒ€
    L0_trend: ์ค‘๊ตญ CXMT๊ฐ€ ๊ณผ์ฐฝํŒ IPO ์ตœ์ข… ์Šน์ธ(295์–ต ์œ„์•ˆ ์กฐ๋‹ฌ)์œผ๋กœ 2026๋…„ ์ค‘๊ตญ ์ฆ์‹œ ์ตœ๋Œ€ IPO ์ „๋ง. DRAM ๊ณต๊ธ‰ ๊ฒฝ์Ÿ ์‹ฌํ™” ๋ฆฌ์Šคํฌ์ด๋‚˜, ๋‹จ๊ธฐ(2027๋…„๊นŒ์ง€) HBMยท๊ณ ๋ถ€๊ฐ€ ๋ฉ”๋ชจ๋ฆฌ ๊ณต๊ธ‰๋ถ€์กฑ ๊ตฌ์กฐ๋Š” ์œ ์ง€. ์ •ํ›ˆ
    L1_industry: TODO
    L2_bottleneck:
      - TODO
    L3_primary:
      KR:
        - {name: SKํ•˜์ด๋‹‰์Šค, code: '000660'}
        - {name: ์‚ผ์„ฑ์ „์ž, code: '005930'}
        - {name: SK, code: '034730'}
      Global: []
    L4_picks_shovels:
      KR: []
      Global: []
    L5_ecosystem:
      KR: []
      Global: []
    horizon: 1-3y
    confidence: low
    related_chains: []
    sources:
      - "2026-06-14 Claude marking (watch)"
    notes: |
      ์ค‘๊ตญ CXMT๊ฐ€ ๊ณผ์ฐฝํŒ IPO ์ตœ์ข… ์Šน์ธ(295์–ต ์œ„์•ˆ ์กฐ๋‹ฌ)์œผ๋กœ 2026๋…„ ์ค‘๊ตญ ์ฆ์‹œ ์ตœ๋Œ€ IPO ์ „๋ง. DRAM ๊ณต๊ธ‰ ๊ฒฝ์Ÿ ์‹ฌํ™” ๋ฆฌ์Šคํฌ์ด๋‚˜, ๋‹จ๊ธฐ(2027๋…„๊นŒ์ง€) HBMยท๊ณ ๋ถ€๊ฐ€ ๋ฉ”๋ชจ๋ฆฌ ๊ณต๊ธ‰๋ถ€์กฑ ๊ตฌ์กฐ๋Š” ์œ ์ง€. ์ •ํ›ˆ๋‹˜ ๊ด€์‹ฌ๋“ฑ๋ก(๋ฉ”๋ชจ๋ฆฌ 2028๋…„ ์šฉ๋Ÿ‰ ์กฐ๊ธฐํ™•๋ณดยท๊ณต๊ธ‰๋ถ€์กฑ 2027๋…„ ํ™•์‹ค)๊ณผ counter-signal๋กœ falsifier ์—ญํ• . SKํ•˜์ด๋‹‰์Šคยท์‚ผ์„ฑ
๐Ÿ“Œ Watch ai-substrate semiconductor

์‚ผ์„ฑ ํŒŒ์šด๋“œ๋ฆฌ 2nm โ€” ํ…Œ์Šฌ๋ผ AI6 ๋…์  ์ˆ˜์ฃผยท์—”๋น„๋””์•„ AI ์ถ”๋ก ์นฉ ์ž ์žฌ ํŒŒ์ดํ”„๋ผ์ธ

ํ…Œ์Šฌ๋ผ AI6 ์นฉ์ด ์‚ผ์„ฑ 2nm ๋…์  ์ƒ์‚ฐ ์ „๋ง๋˜๋ฉฐ, ์—”๋น„๋””์•„ยทGroq ์ถ”๋ก ์นฉ๋„ ์ž ์žฌ ํŒŒ์ดํ”„๋ผ์ธ์— ํฌํ•จ. ์‚ผ์„ฑ ํŒŒ์šด๋“œ๋ฆฌ์˜ AI ๊ณ ๊ฐ์‚ฌ ์ˆ˜์ฃผ ๋‹ค๋ณ€ํ™” ์‹œ๊ทธ๋„๋กœ ์‚ผ์„ฑ์ „์ž DS๋ถ€๋ฌธ ์ด์ต ๋ชจ๋ฉ˜ํ…€ ์žฌํ‰๊ฐ€ ํŠธ๋ฆฌ๊ฑฐ ๊ฐ€๋Šฅ. ์ •ํ›ˆ๋‹˜ ๊ด€์‹ฌ๋“ฑ๋ก ์ปจ์„ผ์„œ์Šค(SKํ•˜์ด๋‹‰์Šคยท์‚ผ์„ฑ์ „์ž ๋ฉ”๋ชจ๋ฆฌ ๊ณต๊ธ‰๋ถ€์กฑ 2027๋…„ ํ™•์‹ค) ์™€ ํŒŒ์šด๋“œ๋ฆฌ ์ˆ˜ํ˜œ chain ์ค‘์ฒฉ.
๐Ÿ“Š 58/100 secular catalyst 6m
backlog
moderate
โš ๏ธ Falsifier (thesis ๋ฐ˜์ „ ์กฐ๊ฑด): [secular-evidence=1] | 2nm ์–‘์‚ฐ ์ˆ˜์œจ ๋ถ€์ง„ยทTSMC ๋Œ€๋น„ ๊ฒฝ์Ÿ๋ ฅ ๋ฏธํšŒ๋ณต ์‹œ AI6 ๋…์  ์ˆ˜์ฃผ ์ดํƒˆ โ†’ ํŒŒ์šด๋“œ๋ฆฌ thesis ๋ฐ˜์ „. ํ…”๋ ˆ๊ทธ๋žจ ๋‹จ์ผ ์†Œ์Šค๋กœ broker_coverage_low ์ฃผ์˜.
๐Ÿ“‹ chain yaml snippet (vault์— ์ถ”๊ฐ€)
  - chain_id: mark-20260614-watch-yaml-3
    name: ์‚ผ์„ฑ ํŒŒ์šด๋“œ๋ฆฌ 2nm โ€” ํ…Œ์Šฌ๋ผ AI6 ๋…์  ์ˆ˜์ฃผยท์—”๋น„๋””์•„ AI ์ถ”๋ก ์นฉ ์ž ์žฌ ํŒŒ์ดํ”„๋ผ์ธ
    L0_trend: ํ…Œ์Šฌ๋ผ AI6 ์นฉ์ด ์‚ผ์„ฑ 2nm ๋…์  ์ƒ์‚ฐ ์ „๋ง๋˜๋ฉฐ, ์—”๋น„๋””์•„ยทGroq ์ถ”๋ก ์นฉ๋„ ์ž ์žฌ ํŒŒ์ดํ”„๋ผ์ธ์— ํฌํ•จ. ์‚ผ์„ฑ ํŒŒ์šด๋“œ๋ฆฌ์˜ AI ๊ณ ๊ฐ์‚ฌ ์ˆ˜์ฃผ ๋‹ค๋ณ€ํ™” ์‹œ๊ทธ๋„๋กœ ์‚ผ์„ฑ์ „์ž DS๋ถ€๋ฌธ ์ด์ต ๋ชจ๋ฉ˜ํ…€ ์žฌํ‰๊ฐ€ ํŠธ๋ฆฌ๊ฑฐ ๊ฐ€๋Šฅ. ์ •ํ›ˆ๋‹˜ 
    L1_industry: TODO
    L2_bottleneck:
      - TODO
    L3_primary:
      KR:
        - {name: ์‚ผ์„ฑ์ „์ž, code: '005930'}
      Global: []
    L4_picks_shovels:
      KR: []
      Global: []
    L5_ecosystem:
      KR: []
      Global: []
    horizon: 1-3y
    confidence: low
    related_chains: []
    sources:
      - "2026-06-14 Claude marking (watch)"
    notes: |
      ํ…Œ์Šฌ๋ผ AI6 ์นฉ์ด ์‚ผ์„ฑ 2nm ๋…์  ์ƒ์‚ฐ ์ „๋ง๋˜๋ฉฐ, ์—”๋น„๋””์•„ยทGroq ์ถ”๋ก ์นฉ๋„ ์ž ์žฌ ํŒŒ์ดํ”„๋ผ์ธ์— ํฌํ•จ. ์‚ผ์„ฑ ํŒŒ์šด๋“œ๋ฆฌ์˜ AI ๊ณ ๊ฐ์‚ฌ ์ˆ˜์ฃผ ๋‹ค๋ณ€ํ™” ์‹œ๊ทธ๋„๋กœ ์‚ผ์„ฑ์ „์ž DS๋ถ€๋ฌธ ์ด์ต ๋ชจ๋ฉ˜ํ…€ ์žฌํ‰๊ฐ€ ํŠธ๋ฆฌ๊ฑฐ ๊ฐ€๋Šฅ. ์ •ํ›ˆ๋‹˜ ๊ด€์‹ฌ๋“ฑ๋ก ์ปจ์„ผ์„œ์Šค(SKํ•˜์ด๋‹‰์Šคยท์‚ผ์„ฑ์ „์ž ๋ฉ”๋ชจ๋ฆฌ ๊ณต๊ธ‰๋ถ€์กฑ 2027๋…„ ํ™•์‹ค) ์™€ ํŒŒ์šด๋“œ๋ฆฌ ์ˆ˜ํ˜œ chain ์ค‘์ฒฉ.
๐Ÿ“Œ Watch mark-20260518-staged-0 shipbuilding

๋ฏธ-์ด๋ž€ ํ•ตํ•ฉ์˜ 24์‹œ๊ฐ„ ๋‚ด ํƒ€๊ฒฐ ์ž„๋ฐ• โ€” ํ˜ธ๋ฅด๋ฌด์ฆˆ ํ•ดํ˜‘ ์žฌ๊ฐœ๋ฐฉยท์œ ๊ฐ€ ํ•˜๋ฝยทK-์กฐ์„  ์ •์ƒํ™” ์ˆ˜ํ˜œ

ํŒŒํ‚ค์Šคํƒ„ ์ด๋ฆฌ๊ฐ€ 24์‹œ๊ฐ„ ๋‚ด ๋ฏธ-์ด๋ž€ ๋”œ ํƒ€๊ฒฐ์„ ๊ณต์‹ ๋ฐœํ‘œํ•˜๊ณ  ํŠธ๋Ÿผํ”„ ํ–‰์ •๋ถ€๊ฐ€ ์„œ๋ช… ๊ฐ€๋Šฅ์„ฑ 80~85%๋ฅผ ์ œ์‹œ. ์ด๋ž€ ์™ธ๋ฌด์žฅ๊ด€๋„ ์ˆ˜์ผ ๋‚ด ์„œ๋ช… ๊ฐ€๋Šฅ ๋ฐœ์–ธ. ํ˜ธ๋ฅด๋ฌด์ฆˆ ํ•ดํ˜‘ ์žฌ๊ฐœ๋ฐฉ ์‹œ ์œ ๊ฐ€ ํ•˜๋ฝยทํ•ด์šด ์ •์ƒํ™”๋กœ K-์กฐ์„ (LNG์„ ยทํƒฑ์ปค) ๋ฐœ์ฃผ ๋ชจ๋ฉ˜ํ…€ ์žฌ๊ฐ€์† ๋ฐ ์ •ํ›ˆ๋‹˜ ๊ด€์‹ฌ๋“ฑ๋ก ๋งˆํ‚น(ํ•œํ™”์˜ค์…˜ยทHDํ˜„๋Œ€์ค‘๊ณต์—… ํ˜ธ๋ฅด๋ฌด์ฆˆ ์ˆ˜ํ˜œ chain)๊ณผ ์ง์ ‘ ์ •ํ•ฉ.
๐Ÿ“Š 62/100 secular catalyst 1m quality high
SUE streak
5๋ถ„๊ธฐ ์—ฐ์†
backlog
high
โš ๏ธ Falsifier (thesis ๋ฐ˜์ „ ์กฐ๊ฑด): [secular-evidence=2] | ํ•ฉ์˜ ์ตœ์ข… ๋ถˆ๋ฐœยท์ด๋ž€ ํ˜‘์ƒ ๊ฒฐ๋ ฌ ์‹œ ์œ ๊ฐ€ ์žฌ์ƒ์Šน + ํ•ด์šด ๋ฆฌ์Šคํฌ ์ง€์† โ†’ ์ˆ˜ํ˜œ thesis ๋ฐ˜์ „. ํ•œํ™”์˜ค์…˜ 5๋ถ„๊ธฐ ์—ฐ์† EPS YoY+143% backlog๋Š” ๋…๋ฆฝ์ ์œผ๋กœ ์œ ์ง€๋˜๋‚˜ ๋ฐœ์ฃผ ๋ชจ๋ฉ˜ํ…€ ํ”„๋ฆฌ๋ฏธ์—„ ์†Œ๋ฉธ.
๐Ÿ“‹ chain yaml snippet (vault์— ์ถ”๊ฐ€)
  - chain_id: mark-20260614-watch-yaml-4
    name: ๋ฏธ-์ด๋ž€ ํ•ตํ•ฉ์˜ 24์‹œ๊ฐ„ ๋‚ด ํƒ€๊ฒฐ ์ž„๋ฐ• โ€” ํ˜ธ๋ฅด๋ฌด์ฆˆ ํ•ดํ˜‘ ์žฌ๊ฐœ๋ฐฉยท์œ ๊ฐ€ ํ•˜๋ฝยทK-์กฐ์„  ์ •์ƒํ™” ์ˆ˜ํ˜œ
    L0_trend: ํŒŒํ‚ค์Šคํƒ„ ์ด๋ฆฌ๊ฐ€ 24์‹œ๊ฐ„ ๋‚ด ๋ฏธ-์ด๋ž€ ๋”œ ํƒ€๊ฒฐ์„ ๊ณต์‹ ๋ฐœํ‘œํ•˜๊ณ  ํŠธ๋Ÿผํ”„ ํ–‰์ •๋ถ€๊ฐ€ ์„œ๋ช… ๊ฐ€๋Šฅ์„ฑ 80~85%๋ฅผ ์ œ์‹œ. ์ด๋ž€ ์™ธ๋ฌด์žฅ๊ด€๋„ ์ˆ˜์ผ ๋‚ด ์„œ๋ช… ๊ฐ€๋Šฅ ๋ฐœ์–ธ. ํ˜ธ๋ฅด๋ฌด์ฆˆ ํ•ดํ˜‘ ์žฌ๊ฐœ๋ฐฉ ์‹œ ์œ ๊ฐ€ ํ•˜๋ฝยทํ•ด์šด ์ •์ƒํ™”๋กœ K-์กฐ์„ (
    L1_industry: TODO
    L2_bottleneck:
      - TODO
    L3_primary:
      KR:
        - {name: ํ•œํ™”์˜ค์…˜, code: '042660'}
        - {name: HDํ˜„๋Œ€์ค‘๊ณต์—…, code: '329180'}
      Global: []
    L4_picks_shovels:
      KR: []
      Global: []
    L5_ecosystem:
      KR: []
      Global: []
    horizon: 1-3y
    confidence: low
    related_chains: []
    sources:
      - "2026-06-14 Claude marking (watch)"
    notes: |
      ํŒŒํ‚ค์Šคํƒ„ ์ด๋ฆฌ๊ฐ€ 24์‹œ๊ฐ„ ๋‚ด ๋ฏธ-์ด๋ž€ ๋”œ ํƒ€๊ฒฐ์„ ๊ณต์‹ ๋ฐœํ‘œํ•˜๊ณ  ํŠธ๋Ÿผํ”„ ํ–‰์ •๋ถ€๊ฐ€ ์„œ๋ช… ๊ฐ€๋Šฅ์„ฑ 80~85%๋ฅผ ์ œ์‹œ. ์ด๋ž€ ์™ธ๋ฌด์žฅ๊ด€๋„ ์ˆ˜์ผ ๋‚ด ์„œ๋ช… ๊ฐ€๋Šฅ ๋ฐœ์–ธ. ํ˜ธ๋ฅด๋ฌด์ฆˆ ํ•ดํ˜‘ ์žฌ๊ฐœ๋ฐฉ ์‹œ ์œ ๊ฐ€ ํ•˜๋ฝยทํ•ด์šด ์ •์ƒํ™”๋กœ K-์กฐ์„ (LNG์„ ยทํƒฑ์ปค) ๋ฐœ์ฃผ ๋ชจ๋ฉ˜ํ…€ ์žฌ๊ฐ€์† ๋ฐ ์ •ํ›ˆ๋‹˜ ๊ด€์‹ฌ๋“ฑ๋ก ๋งˆํ‚น(ํ•œํ™”์˜ค์…˜ยทHDํ˜„๋Œ€์ค‘๊ณต์—… ํ˜ธ๋ฅด๋ฌด์ฆˆ ์ˆ˜ํ˜œ chain)๊ณผ ์ง์ ‘ ์ •ํ•ฉ.

๐Ÿ’ก New Chain ํ›„๋ณด (1๊ฑด)

์ •ํ›ˆ๋‹˜์ด chain master yaml์— ์ถ”๊ฐ€ ๊ฒ€ํ†  โ€” ~/projects/raki-vault/master/topdown_chains.yaml

๐Ÿ’ก ํ›„๋ณด bio-platform

GLP-1 ํ”Œ๋žซํผ ๊ธฐ๋ฐ˜ ๋ณ‘์˜์› ์ „๋ฌธ์˜์•ฝํ’ˆ ์ด์ปค๋จธ์Šค โ€” ๋ธ”๋ฃจ์— ํ… GLP-1ยท์—์Šคํ…Œํ‹ฑ ์ˆ˜ํ˜œ ์‹ chain ํ›„๋ณด

๋ธ”๋ฃจ์— ํ…(๋ธ”๋ฃจํŒœ์ฝ”๋ฆฌ์•„)์ด ๊ตญ๋‚ด 1์œ„ ๋ณ‘์˜์› ์ „๋ฌธ์˜์•ฝํ’ˆ ์ด์ปค๋จธ์Šค ํ”Œ๋žซํผ์œผ๋กœ 2026๋…„ GLP-1ยท์—์Šคํ…Œํ‹ฑ ์™ธํ˜• ํ™•๋Œ€ ์ „๋žต(๋งค์ถœ 2000์–ต ๋ชฉํ‘œ). GLP-1 ์ฒ˜๋ฐฉ ๊ธ‰์ฆ์ด ๋ณ‘์˜์› ์ „๋ฌธ์˜์•ฝํ’ˆ ์œ ํ†ต ํ”Œ๋žซํผ์— ์ง์ ‘ ๋ฐ˜์˜๋˜๋Š” ์‹  chain โ€” ๊ธฐ์กด biopharma-cmo(CMOยท์ œ์กฐ) chain๊ณผ ๋‹ฌ๋ฆฌ '์œ ํ†ตยทํ”Œ๋žซํผ' ์ˆ˜ํ˜œ ๊ฒฝ๋กœ. ์ •ํ›ˆ๋‹˜ ๊ฒ€์ฆ ํ•„์š”.
๐Ÿ“Š 48/100 secular catalyst 3m
โš ๏ธ Falsifier (thesis ๋ฐ˜์ „ ์กฐ๊ฑด): [secular-evidence=1] | GLP-1 ์ฒ˜๋ฐฉ ํ™•๋Œ€๊ฐ€ ๋ณ‘์˜์› ์ฑ„๋„ ๋Œ€์‹  ์•ฝ๊ตญยท์˜จ๋ผ์ธ ์ฑ„๋„๋กœ ๋ถ„์‚ฐ ์‹œ ํ”Œ๋žซํผ ์ˆ˜ํ˜œ ์•ฝํ™”. ๋‹จ์ผ IPO ์ฃผ๊ด€์‚ฌ ๋ฆฌํฌํŠธยทbroker_coverage_low ์ฃผ์˜ โ€” ์ •๋Ÿ‰ EPSยท์ปจ์„ผ ๋ฏธํ™•์ธ.
๐Ÿ“‹ chain yaml snippet (vault์— ์ถ”๊ฐ€)
  - chain_id: mark-20260614-newchain-yaml-0
    name: GLP-1 ํ”Œ๋žซํผ ๊ธฐ๋ฐ˜ ๋ณ‘์˜์› ์ „๋ฌธ์˜์•ฝํ’ˆ ์ด์ปค๋จธ์Šค โ€” ๋ธ”๋ฃจ์— ํ… GLP-1ยท์—์Šคํ…Œํ‹ฑ ์ˆ˜ํ˜œ ์‹ chain ํ›„๋ณด
    L0_trend: ๋ธ”๋ฃจ์— ํ…(๋ธ”๋ฃจํŒœ์ฝ”๋ฆฌ์•„)์ด ๊ตญ๋‚ด 1์œ„ ๋ณ‘์˜์› ์ „๋ฌธ์˜์•ฝํ’ˆ ์ด์ปค๋จธ์Šค ํ”Œ๋žซํผ์œผ๋กœ 2026๋…„ GLP-1ยท์—์Šคํ…Œํ‹ฑ ์™ธํ˜• ํ™•๋Œ€ ์ „๋žต(๋งค์ถœ 2000์–ต ๋ชฉํ‘œ). GLP-1 ์ฒ˜๋ฐฉ ๊ธ‰์ฆ์ด ๋ณ‘์˜์› ์ „๋ฌธ์˜์•ฝํ’ˆ ์œ ํ†ต ํ”Œ๋žซํผ์— ์ง์ ‘ ๋ฐ˜์˜๋˜๋Š” 
    L1_industry: TODO
    L2_bottleneck:
      - TODO
    L3_primary:
      KR:
        - {name: ๋ธ”๋ฃจ์— ํ…, code: '439580'}
      Global: []
    L4_picks_shovels:
      KR: []
      Global: []
    L5_ecosystem:
      KR: []
      Global: []
    horizon: 1-3y
    confidence: low
    related_chains: []
    sources:
      - "2026-06-14 Claude marking (new_chain)"
    notes: |
      ๋ธ”๋ฃจ์— ํ…(๋ธ”๋ฃจํŒœ์ฝ”๋ฆฌ์•„)์ด ๊ตญ๋‚ด 1์œ„ ๋ณ‘์˜์› ์ „๋ฌธ์˜์•ฝํ’ˆ ์ด์ปค๋จธ์Šค ํ”Œ๋žซํผ์œผ๋กœ 2026๋…„ GLP-1ยท์—์Šคํ…Œํ‹ฑ ์™ธํ˜• ํ™•๋Œ€ ์ „๋žต(๋งค์ถœ 2000์–ต ๋ชฉํ‘œ). GLP-1 ์ฒ˜๋ฐฉ ๊ธ‰์ฆ์ด ๋ณ‘์˜์› ์ „๋ฌธ์˜์•ฝํ’ˆ ์œ ํ†ต ํ”Œ๋žซํผ์— ์ง์ ‘ ๋ฐ˜์˜๋˜๋Š” ์‹  chain โ€” ๊ธฐ์กด biopharma-cmo(CMOยท์ œ์กฐ) chain๊ณผ ๋‹ฌ๋ฆฌ '์œ ํ†ตยทํ”Œ๋žซํผ' ์ˆ˜ํ˜œ ๊ฒฝ๋กœ. ์ •ํ›ˆ๋‹˜ ๊ฒ€์ฆ ํ•„์š”.

์ถ”๊ฐ€ ์ ˆ์ฐจ: 1) ๋ณต์‚ฌ ๋ฒ„ํŠผ โ†’ 2) ~/projects/raki-vault/master/topdown_chains.yaml ์—ด๊ธฐ โ†’ 3) chains: ์•„๋ž˜์— paste โ†’ 4) TODO ๋ถ€๋ถ„ ์ˆ˜์ • โ†’ 5) ๋‹ค์Œ ๋นŒ๋“œ์—์„œ /topdown/์— ๋ฐ˜์˜.