๐Ÿ“Š raki research
๐ŸŽฏ DAILY2026-08-12

๐ŸŽฏ 2026-08-12 DAILY Marking

Claude CLI๊ฐ€ 24h ์‚ฐ์—… ์ด์Šˆ์—์„œ ์ž๋™ ์ถ”์ถœ ยท ๐Ÿ”ฅ 0 / ๐Ÿ“Œ 5 / ๐Ÿ’ก 0

๐Ÿ”ฅ Critical (0๊ฑด)

๐Ÿ“Œ Watch (5๊ฑด)

๐Ÿ“Œ Watch ai-power-bottleneck semiconductor

CoreWeave 2Q26 ๋งค์ถœ ๋ฐฑ๋กœ๊ทธ 1,042์–ต๋‹ฌ๋Ÿฌ(+246% YoY) โ€” ํ•˜์ดํผ์Šค์ผ€์ผ๋Ÿฌ AI ์ธํ”„๋ผ ์ˆ˜์š” ์ง€์† ๊ฐ€์†

๋งค์ถœ backlog๊ฐ€ 5๊ฐœ ๋ถ„๊ธฐ ์—ฐ์† ๊ธ‰์ฆ(259โ†’1,042์–ต๋‹ฌ๋Ÿฌ)ํ•˜๋ฉฐ 3Q ์ดˆ ์ถ”๊ฐ€ 250์–ต๋‹ฌ๋Ÿฌ ์‹ ๊ทœ ๊ณ„์•ฝ์€ ๋ฏธํฌํ•จ. AI ์ธํ”„๋ผ capex ์‚ฌ์ดํด์˜ ๊ตฌ์กฐ์  ์ง€์†์„ ์‹œ์‚ฌํ•˜๋‚˜ ํ•œ๊ตญ ์ข…๋ชฉ ์ง์ ‘ ๋งค์นญ ๋ถ€์žฌ๋กœ chain ์ˆ˜ํ˜œ ์ข…๋ชฉ์€ ๊ฐ„์ ‘์ .
๐Ÿ“Š 64/100 secular quality moderate
backlog
high
โš ๏ธ Falsifier (thesis ๋ฐ˜์ „ ์กฐ๊ฑด): [secular-evidence=1]
๐Ÿ“‹ chain yaml snippet (vault์— ์ถ”๊ฐ€)
  - chain_id: mark-20260812-watch-yaml-0
    name: CoreWeave 2Q26 ๋งค์ถœ ๋ฐฑ๋กœ๊ทธ 1,042์–ต๋‹ฌ๋Ÿฌ(+246% YoY) โ€” ํ•˜์ดํผ์Šค์ผ€์ผ๋Ÿฌ AI ์ธํ”„๋ผ ์ˆ˜์š” ์ง€์† ๊ฐ€์†
    L0_trend: ๋งค์ถœ backlog๊ฐ€ 5๊ฐœ ๋ถ„๊ธฐ ์—ฐ์† ๊ธ‰์ฆ(259โ†’1,042์–ต๋‹ฌ๋Ÿฌ)ํ•˜๋ฉฐ 3Q ์ดˆ ์ถ”๊ฐ€ 250์–ต๋‹ฌ๋Ÿฌ ์‹ ๊ทœ ๊ณ„์•ฝ์€ ๋ฏธํฌํ•จ. AI ์ธํ”„๋ผ capex ์‚ฌ์ดํด์˜ ๊ตฌ์กฐ์  ์ง€์†์„ ์‹œ์‚ฌํ•˜๋‚˜ ํ•œ๊ตญ ์ข…๋ชฉ ์ง์ ‘ ๋งค์นญ ๋ถ€์žฌ๋กœ chain 
    L1_industry: TODO
    L2_bottleneck:
      - TODO
    L3_primary:
      KR:
      Global: []
    L4_picks_shovels:
      KR: []
      Global: []
    L5_ecosystem:
      KR: []
      Global: []
    horizon: 1-3y
    confidence: low
    related_chains: []
    sources:
      - "2026-08-12 Claude marking (watch)"
    notes: |
      ๋งค์ถœ backlog๊ฐ€ 5๊ฐœ ๋ถ„๊ธฐ ์—ฐ์† ๊ธ‰์ฆ(259โ†’1,042์–ต๋‹ฌ๋Ÿฌ)ํ•˜๋ฉฐ 3Q ์ดˆ ์ถ”๊ฐ€ 250์–ต๋‹ฌ๋Ÿฌ ์‹ ๊ทœ ๊ณ„์•ฝ์€ ๋ฏธํฌํ•จ. AI ์ธํ”„๋ผ capex ์‚ฌ์ดํด์˜ ๊ตฌ์กฐ์  ์ง€์†์„ ์‹œ์‚ฌํ•˜๋‚˜ ํ•œ๊ตญ ์ข…๋ชฉ ์ง์ ‘ ๋งค์นญ ๋ถ€์žฌ๋กœ chain ์ˆ˜ํ˜œ ์ข…๋ชฉ์€ ๊ฐ„์ ‘์ .
๐Ÿ“Œ Watch cpo-photonics semiconductor

TSMC ์‹ค๋ฆฌ์ฝ˜ ํฌํ† ๋‹‰์Šค ์ˆ˜์ง๊ณ„์—ดํ™” โ€” VisEra 800G ํŠธ๋žœ์‹œ๋ฒ„ ์–‘์‚ฐ, 1.6T PIC ๊ฐœ๋ฐœ ์ค‘

TSMC ๊ด‘ํ•™ ๊ณ„์—ด์‚ฌ VisEra๊ฐ€ AI ๋ฐ์ดํ„ฐ์„ผํ„ฐๅ‘ 800G pluggable transceiver ์–‘์‚ฐ ๊ฐœ์‹œ, 1.6T ์ฐจ์„ธ๋Œ€ PIC ๊ฐœ๋ฐœ ์ค‘. CPO/๊ด‘์ธํ„ฐ์ปค๋„ฅํŠธ chain L0~L1 ๊ฐ•ํ™” ์‹œ๊ทธ๋„์ด๋‚˜ ํ•œ๊ตญ ๋ถ€ํ’ˆ์‚ฌ ์ง์ ‘ trace๋Š” ๋ถ€์žฌ.
๐Ÿ“Š 58/100 secular
โš ๏ธ Falsifier (thesis ๋ฐ˜์ „ ์กฐ๊ฑด): [secular-evidence=1]
๐Ÿ“‹ chain yaml snippet (vault์— ์ถ”๊ฐ€)
  - chain_id: mark-20260812-watch-yaml-1
    name: TSMC ์‹ค๋ฆฌ์ฝ˜ ํฌํ† ๋‹‰์Šค ์ˆ˜์ง๊ณ„์—ดํ™” โ€” VisEra 800G ํŠธ๋žœ์‹œ๋ฒ„ ์–‘์‚ฐ, 1.6T PIC ๊ฐœ๋ฐœ ์ค‘
    L0_trend: TSMC ๊ด‘ํ•™ ๊ณ„์—ด์‚ฌ VisEra๊ฐ€ AI ๋ฐ์ดํ„ฐ์„ผํ„ฐๅ‘ 800G pluggable transceiver ์–‘์‚ฐ ๊ฐœ์‹œ, 1.6T ์ฐจ์„ธ๋Œ€ PIC ๊ฐœ๋ฐœ ์ค‘. CPO/๊ด‘์ธํ„ฐ์ปค๋„ฅํŠธ chain L0~L1 ๊ฐ•ํ™” ์‹œ๊ทธ๋„์ด๋‚˜ ํ•œ๊ตญ ๋ถ€ํ’ˆ
    L1_industry: TODO
    L2_bottleneck:
      - TODO
    L3_primary:
      KR:
      Global: []
    L4_picks_shovels:
      KR: []
      Global: []
    L5_ecosystem:
      KR: []
      Global: []
    horizon: 1-3y
    confidence: low
    related_chains: []
    sources:
      - "2026-08-12 Claude marking (watch)"
    notes: |
      TSMC ๊ด‘ํ•™ ๊ณ„์—ด์‚ฌ VisEra๊ฐ€ AI ๋ฐ์ดํ„ฐ์„ผํ„ฐๅ‘ 800G pluggable transceiver ์–‘์‚ฐ ๊ฐœ์‹œ, 1.6T ์ฐจ์„ธ๋Œ€ PIC ๊ฐœ๋ฐœ ์ค‘. CPO/๊ด‘์ธํ„ฐ์ปค๋„ฅํŠธ chain L0~L1 ๊ฐ•ํ™” ์‹œ๊ทธ๋„์ด๋‚˜ ํ•œ๊ตญ ๋ถ€ํ’ˆ์‚ฌ ์ง์ ‘ trace๋Š” ๋ถ€์žฌ.
๐Ÿ“Œ Watch construction

์ฝ”์˜ค๋กฑ๊ธ€๋กœ๋ฒŒ 2Q26 ์˜์—…์ต YoY +173.6% + ์žฌ๊ฑด์ถ• ์‹ ๊ทœ ์ˆ˜์ฃผ 2,183์–ต

์—ฐ๊ฒฐ ์˜์—…์ด์ต 522์–ต(YoY +173.55%)์— ์•ˆ์‚ฐ ์žฌ๊ฑด์ถ• ์ •๋น„์‚ฌ์—… ๋Œ€ํ˜• ์ˆ˜์ฃผ(๋งค์ถœ์•ก ๋Œ€๋น„ 8.13%) ๋™์‹œ ๋ฐœํ‘œ. ๊ฑด์„ค ์ˆ˜์ฃผ์ž”๊ณ  YoY ์„นํ„ฐ ์ง€ํ‘œ(+13.6%)์™€ ๊ฒฐํ•ฉํ•ด ์‹ค์  ๊ฐ€์† ๊ฐ€๋Šฅ์„ฑ.
๐Ÿ“Š 65/100 cyclical catalyst 1m quality moderate
EPS YoY
+173.6%
SUE streak
1๋ถ„๊ธฐ ์—ฐ์†
backlog
high
๐Ÿ“‹ chain yaml snippet (vault์— ์ถ”๊ฐ€)
  - chain_id: mark-20260812-watch-yaml-2
    name: ์ฝ”์˜ค๋กฑ๊ธ€๋กœ๋ฒŒ 2Q26 ์˜์—…์ต YoY +173.6% + ์žฌ๊ฑด์ถ• ์‹ ๊ทœ ์ˆ˜์ฃผ 2,183์–ต
    L0_trend: ์—ฐ๊ฒฐ ์˜์—…์ด์ต 522์–ต(YoY +173.55%)์— ์•ˆ์‚ฐ ์žฌ๊ฑด์ถ• ์ •๋น„์‚ฌ์—… ๋Œ€ํ˜• ์ˆ˜์ฃผ(๋งค์ถœ์•ก ๋Œ€๋น„ 8.13%) ๋™์‹œ ๋ฐœํ‘œ. ๊ฑด์„ค ์ˆ˜์ฃผ์ž”๊ณ  YoY ์„นํ„ฐ ์ง€ํ‘œ(+13.6%)์™€ ๊ฒฐํ•ฉํ•ด ์‹ค์  ๊ฐ€์† ๊ฐ€๋Šฅ์„ฑ.
    L1_industry: TODO
    L2_bottleneck:
      - TODO
    L3_primary:
      KR:
        - {name: ์ฝ”์˜ค๋กฑ๊ธ€๋กœ๋ฒŒ, code: '003070'}
      Global: []
    L4_picks_shovels:
      KR: []
      Global: []
    L5_ecosystem:
      KR: []
      Global: []
    horizon: 1-3y
    confidence: low
    related_chains: []
    sources:
      - "2026-08-12 Claude marking (watch)"
    notes: |
      ์—ฐ๊ฒฐ ์˜์—…์ด์ต 522์–ต(YoY +173.55%)์— ์•ˆ์‚ฐ ์žฌ๊ฑด์ถ• ์ •๋น„์‚ฌ์—… ๋Œ€ํ˜• ์ˆ˜์ฃผ(๋งค์ถœ์•ก ๋Œ€๋น„ 8.13%) ๋™์‹œ ๋ฐœํ‘œ. ๊ฑด์„ค ์ˆ˜์ฃผ์ž”๊ณ  YoY ์„นํ„ฐ ์ง€ํ‘œ(+13.6%)์™€ ๊ฒฐํ•ฉํ•ด ์‹ค์  ๊ฐ€์† ๊ฐ€๋Šฅ์„ฑ.
๐Ÿ“Œ Watch ai-substrate materials

AI ์„œ๋ฒ„ PCB ์ƒ๋ฅ˜ ์†Œ์žฌ(์œ ๋ฆฌ์„ฌ์œ ยท๋™๋ฐ•ยทCCL) ๊ตฌ์กฐ์  ๊ณต๊ธ‰ ๋ถ€์กฑ โ€” ๋Œ€๋งŒ Nanya ๊ฐ€๊ฒฉ ์ธ์ƒ

AI ์„œ๋ฒ„ ์นฉ ๋Œ€๋ฉด์ ํ™”ยทPCB ๊ณ ๋‹ค์ธตํ™”๋กœ ์ƒ๋ฅ˜ ์ „์ž์žฌ๋ฃŒ(์œ ๋ฆฌ์„ฌ์œ ์‚ฌยท๋™๋ฐ•ยทCCL) ์ˆ˜๊ธ‰ ๋ถˆ๊ท ํ˜• ์‹ฌํ™”, ์žฅ๋น„ ์ œ์•ฝ์œผ๋กœ ์‹ ๊ทœ capa ์ฆ์„ค ์ œํ•œ. ๊ตญ๋‚ด CS ๋“ฑ ๊ด€๋ จ ์†Œ์žฌ์‚ฌ chain ์ˆ˜ํ˜œ ๊ฐ€๋Šฅ์„ฑ์ด๋‚˜ ์ •๋Ÿ‰ ์‹ค์  ๋ฐ์ดํ„ฐ ๋ถ€์žฌ.
๐Ÿ“Š 62/100 secular catalyst 3m
backlog
high
โš ๏ธ Falsifier (thesis ๋ฐ˜์ „ ์กฐ๊ฑด): [secular-evidence=1]
๐Ÿ“‹ chain yaml snippet (vault์— ์ถ”๊ฐ€)
  - chain_id: mark-20260812-watch-yaml-3
    name: AI ์„œ๋ฒ„ PCB ์ƒ๋ฅ˜ ์†Œ์žฌ(์œ ๋ฆฌ์„ฌ์œ ยท๋™๋ฐ•ยทCCL) ๊ตฌ์กฐ์  ๊ณต๊ธ‰ ๋ถ€์กฑ โ€” ๋Œ€๋งŒ Nanya ๊ฐ€๊ฒฉ ์ธ์ƒ
    L0_trend: AI ์„œ๋ฒ„ ์นฉ ๋Œ€๋ฉด์ ํ™”ยทPCB ๊ณ ๋‹ค์ธตํ™”๋กœ ์ƒ๋ฅ˜ ์ „์ž์žฌ๋ฃŒ(์œ ๋ฆฌ์„ฌ์œ ์‚ฌยท๋™๋ฐ•ยทCCL) ์ˆ˜๊ธ‰ ๋ถˆ๊ท ํ˜• ์‹ฌํ™”, ์žฅ๋น„ ์ œ์•ฝ์œผ๋กœ ์‹ ๊ทœ capa ์ฆ์„ค ์ œํ•œ. ๊ตญ๋‚ด CS ๋“ฑ ๊ด€๋ จ ์†Œ์žฌ์‚ฌ chain ์ˆ˜ํ˜œ ๊ฐ€๋Šฅ์„ฑ์ด๋‚˜ ์ •๋Ÿ‰ ์‹ค์  ๋ฐ์ดํ„ฐ ๋ถ€
    L1_industry: TODO
    L2_bottleneck:
      - TODO
    L3_primary:
      KR:
        - {name: CS, code: '065770'}
      Global: []
    L4_picks_shovels:
      KR: []
      Global: []
    L5_ecosystem:
      KR: []
      Global: []
    horizon: 1-3y
    confidence: low
    related_chains: []
    sources:
      - "2026-08-12 Claude marking (watch)"
    notes: |
      AI ์„œ๋ฒ„ ์นฉ ๋Œ€๋ฉด์ ํ™”ยทPCB ๊ณ ๋‹ค์ธตํ™”๋กœ ์ƒ๋ฅ˜ ์ „์ž์žฌ๋ฃŒ(์œ ๋ฆฌ์„ฌ์œ ์‚ฌยท๋™๋ฐ•ยทCCL) ์ˆ˜๊ธ‰ ๋ถˆ๊ท ํ˜• ์‹ฌํ™”, ์žฅ๋น„ ์ œ์•ฝ์œผ๋กœ ์‹ ๊ทœ capa ์ฆ์„ค ์ œํ•œ. ๊ตญ๋‚ด CS ๋“ฑ ๊ด€๋ จ ์†Œ์žฌ์‚ฌ chain ์ˆ˜ํ˜œ ๊ฐ€๋Šฅ์„ฑ์ด๋‚˜ ์ •๋Ÿ‰ ์‹ค์  ๋ฐ์ดํ„ฐ ๋ถ€์žฌ.
๐Ÿ“Œ Watch materials

์ฝ”์Šค๋งฅ์Šคยท์ฝ”์Šค๋ฉ”์นด 3๋ถ„๊ธฐ ODM ์—…ํ™ฉ ํ˜ธํ™ฉ โ€” ํ•œ๊ตญ๋ฒ•์ธ ๋งค์ถœ QoQ ์ฆ๊ฐ€ ์ง€์†

์ฝ”์Šค๋งฅ์Šค ํ•œ๊ตญ๋ฒ•์ธ 3๋ถ„๊ธฐ ๋งค์ถœ YoY +35~40% ์ „๋ง, ๊ฒ”๋งˆ์ŠคํฌํŒฉ ์ˆ˜์œจ ๊ฐœ์„ . daju ๊ธฐ์ค€ ์ฝ”์Šค๋งฅ์Šค ๋ชฉํ‘œ๊ฐ€ ์ตœ๊ทผ ๋‘ ์ฐจ๋ก€ ์ƒํ–ฅ(+33.3%, +92.3%~250,000์›)๊ณผ ์ •ํ•ฉ. ODM ์—…์ฒด ์ „๋ฐ˜ QoQ ์ฆ๊ฐ€ ์–ธ๊ธ‰์ด ์ด๋ก€์  ์—…ํ™ฉ์ž„์„ ์‹œ์‚ฌ.
๐Ÿ“Š 68/100 cyclical catalyst 1m quality moderate
์ปจ์„ผ revision
+92.3%
backlog
moderate
๋ชฉํ‘œ๊ฐ€ ฮ”
+92.3%
๐Ÿ“‹ chain yaml snippet (vault์— ์ถ”๊ฐ€)
  - chain_id: mark-20260812-watch-yaml-4
    name: ์ฝ”์Šค๋งฅ์Šคยท์ฝ”์Šค๋ฉ”์นด 3๋ถ„๊ธฐ ODM ์—…ํ™ฉ ํ˜ธํ™ฉ โ€” ํ•œ๊ตญ๋ฒ•์ธ ๋งค์ถœ QoQ ์ฆ๊ฐ€ ์ง€์†
    L0_trend: ์ฝ”์Šค๋งฅ์Šค ํ•œ๊ตญ๋ฒ•์ธ 3๋ถ„๊ธฐ ๋งค์ถœ YoY +35~40% ์ „๋ง, ๊ฒ”๋งˆ์ŠคํฌํŒฉ ์ˆ˜์œจ ๊ฐœ์„ . daju ๊ธฐ์ค€ ์ฝ”์Šค๋งฅ์Šค ๋ชฉํ‘œ๊ฐ€ ์ตœ๊ทผ ๋‘ ์ฐจ๋ก€ ์ƒํ–ฅ(+33.3%, +92.3%~250,000์›)๊ณผ ์ •ํ•ฉ. ODM ์—…์ฒด ์ „๋ฐ˜ QoQ ์ฆ๊ฐ€
    L1_industry: TODO
    L2_bottleneck:
      - TODO
    L3_primary:
      KR:
        - {name: ์ฝ”์Šค๋งฅ์Šค, code: '192820'}
      Global: []
    L4_picks_shovels:
      KR: []
      Global: []
    L5_ecosystem:
      KR: []
      Global: []
    horizon: 1-3y
    confidence: low
    related_chains: []
    sources:
      - "2026-08-12 Claude marking (watch)"
    notes: |
      ์ฝ”์Šค๋งฅ์Šค ํ•œ๊ตญ๋ฒ•์ธ 3๋ถ„๊ธฐ ๋งค์ถœ YoY +35~40% ์ „๋ง, ๊ฒ”๋งˆ์ŠคํฌํŒฉ ์ˆ˜์œจ ๊ฐœ์„ . daju ๊ธฐ์ค€ ์ฝ”์Šค๋งฅ์Šค ๋ชฉํ‘œ๊ฐ€ ์ตœ๊ทผ ๋‘ ์ฐจ๋ก€ ์ƒํ–ฅ(+33.3%, +92.3%~250,000์›)๊ณผ ์ •ํ•ฉ. ODM ์—…์ฒด ์ „๋ฐ˜ QoQ ์ฆ๊ฐ€ ์–ธ๊ธ‰์ด ์ด๋ก€์  ์—…ํ™ฉ์ž„์„ ์‹œ์‚ฌ.