๐Ÿ“Š raki research
๐ŸŽฏ DAILY2026-08-22

๐ŸŽฏ 2026-08-22 DAILY Marking

Claude CLI๊ฐ€ 24h ์‚ฐ์—… ์ด์Šˆ์—์„œ ์ž๋™ ์ถ”์ถœ ยท ๐Ÿ”ฅ 0 / ๐Ÿ“Œ 4 / ๐Ÿ’ก 0

๐Ÿ”ฅ Critical (0๊ฑด)

๐Ÿ“Œ Watch (4๊ฑด)

๐Ÿ“Œ Watch ai-substrate semiconductor

ํ•œ๊ตญ 8์›” 1~20์ผ ์ˆ˜์ถœ ๋ฐ˜๋„์ฒด +198.8% YoY โ€” ์—ญ๋Œ€ ์ตœ๋Œ€ ์ˆ˜์ถœ๋ฌผ๊ฐ€ ํ™•์ธ

๊ด€์„ธ์ฒญ ์ž ์ • ์ˆ˜์ถœ ๋ฐ์ดํ„ฐ๋กœ ๋ฐ˜๋„์ฒด ์ˆ˜์ถœ์•ก ๊ธ‰์ฆ ํ™•์ธ. 8์›” ๋ฐ˜๋„์ฒด ์ˆ˜์ถœ๋ฌผ๊ฐ€์ง€์ˆ˜(ECOS) +172.6๊ณผ ์ •ํ•ฉ. ๋ฉ”๋ชจ๋ฆฌ ๊ฐ€๊ฒฉ ์ƒ์Šน ๊ตญ๋ฉด๊ณผ ๋งž๋ฌผ๋ ค 3Q26 ์‹ค์  ์„œํ”„๋ผ์ด์ฆˆ ๊ฐ€๋Šฅ์„ฑ.
๐Ÿ“Š 68/100 secular catalyst 3m
โš ๏ธ Falsifier (thesis ๋ฐ˜์ „ ์กฐ๊ฑด): [secular-evidence=1] | ๋ฉ”๋ชจ๋ฆฌ ๋ชจ๋ฉ˜ํ…€ ์ž๊ธˆ ์ดํƒˆ(#43 Bloomberg)ยทCXMT ์ €๊ฐ€ ๊ณต์„ธ ์žฌ์ ํ™” ์‹œ ์ˆ˜์ถœ ํ˜ธ์กฐ๊ฐ€ ๊ฐ€๊ฒฉ์ด ์•„๋‹Œ ๋ฌผ๋Ÿ‰ ์ฃผ๋„๋กœ ํ™•์ธ๋˜๋ฉด ๋งˆ์ง„ ํ›ผ์† ์šฐ๋ ค
๐Ÿ“‹ chain yaml snippet (vault์— ์ถ”๊ฐ€)
  - chain_id: mark-20260822-watch-yaml-0
    name: ํ•œ๊ตญ 8์›” 1~20์ผ ์ˆ˜์ถœ ๋ฐ˜๋„์ฒด +198.8% YoY โ€” ์—ญ๋Œ€ ์ตœ๋Œ€ ์ˆ˜์ถœ๋ฌผ๊ฐ€ ํ™•์ธ
    L0_trend: ๊ด€์„ธ์ฒญ ์ž ์ • ์ˆ˜์ถœ ๋ฐ์ดํ„ฐ๋กœ ๋ฐ˜๋„์ฒด ์ˆ˜์ถœ์•ก ๊ธ‰์ฆ ํ™•์ธ. 8์›” ๋ฐ˜๋„์ฒด ์ˆ˜์ถœ๋ฌผ๊ฐ€์ง€์ˆ˜(ECOS) +172.6๊ณผ ์ •ํ•ฉ. ๋ฉ”๋ชจ๋ฆฌ ๊ฐ€๊ฒฉ ์ƒ์Šน ๊ตญ๋ฉด๊ณผ ๋งž๋ฌผ๋ ค 3Q26 ์‹ค์  ์„œํ”„๋ผ์ด์ฆˆ ๊ฐ€๋Šฅ์„ฑ.
    L1_industry: TODO
    L2_bottleneck:
      - TODO
    L3_primary:
      KR:
        - {name: ์‚ผ์„ฑ์ „์ž, code: '005930'}
        - {name: SKํ•˜์ด๋‹‰์Šค, code: '000660'}
      Global: []
    L4_picks_shovels:
      KR: []
      Global: []
    L5_ecosystem:
      KR: []
      Global: []
    horizon: 1-3y
    confidence: low
    related_chains: []
    sources:
      - "2026-08-22 Claude marking (watch)"
    notes: |
      ๊ด€์„ธ์ฒญ ์ž ์ • ์ˆ˜์ถœ ๋ฐ์ดํ„ฐ๋กœ ๋ฐ˜๋„์ฒด ์ˆ˜์ถœ์•ก ๊ธ‰์ฆ ํ™•์ธ. 8์›” ๋ฐ˜๋„์ฒด ์ˆ˜์ถœ๋ฌผ๊ฐ€์ง€์ˆ˜(ECOS) +172.6๊ณผ ์ •ํ•ฉ. ๋ฉ”๋ชจ๋ฆฌ ๊ฐ€๊ฒฉ ์ƒ์Šน ๊ตญ๋ฉด๊ณผ ๋งž๋ฌผ๋ ค 3Q26 ์‹ค์  ์„œํ”„๋ผ์ด์ฆˆ ๊ฐ€๋Šฅ์„ฑ.
๐Ÿ“Œ Watch ai-substrate semiconductor

SKํ•˜์ด๋‹‰์Šค โ€” 40์กฐ์› ์ž์‚ฌ์ฃผ ์ „๋Ÿ‰์†Œ๊ฐ ๋ฐœํ‘œ, ์‚ผ์„ฑ์ „์ž ๋Œ€๋น„ ๊ฐ•ํ•œ ํ™˜์› ์‹ ํ˜ธ

์ž์‚ฌ์ฃผ ๋งค์ž… ์ง„ํ–‰๋ฅ  5.6%(2.2์กฐ์›) ์ดˆ๊ธฐ ์ง‘ํ–‰ ํ™•์ธ. ์ „๋Ÿ‰ ์†Œ๊ฐ์€ EPS ํฌ์„ ๋ฐฉ์ง€ ํšจ๊ณผ๋กœ ์‚ผ์„ฑ์ „์ž(๋งค์ž… ํ›„ ๋ฏธ์†Œ๊ฐ)๋ณด๋‹ค ์ฃผ์ฃผ๊ฐ€์น˜ ์ œ๊ณ  ๊ฐ•๋„๊ฐ€ ํผ. ๋ฉ”๋ชจ๋ฆฌ ์—…์‚ฌ์ดํด๊ณผ ๋งž๋ฌผ๋ ค valuation ์ง€์ง€ ์š”์ธ.
๐Ÿ“Š 58/100 secular catalyst 3m
โš ๏ธ Falsifier (thesis ๋ฐ˜์ „ ์กฐ๊ฑด): [secular-evidence=1] | ์ž์‚ฌ์ฃผ ๋งค์ž…ยท์†Œ๊ฐ์€ ์ด์ต ๋ชจ๋ฉ˜ํ…€ ์ž์ฒด๊ฐ€ ์•„๋‹Œ ์ž๋ณธ๋ฐฐ๋ถ„ ์ด๋ฒคํŠธ โ€” ๋ฉ”๋ชจ๋ฆฌ ๊ฐ€๊ฒฉ ๋ฐ˜์ „ ์‹œ ๋ฌด์˜๋ฏธ
๐Ÿ“‹ chain yaml snippet (vault์— ์ถ”๊ฐ€)
  - chain_id: mark-20260822-watch-yaml-1
    name: SKํ•˜์ด๋‹‰์Šค โ€” 40์กฐ์› ์ž์‚ฌ์ฃผ ์ „๋Ÿ‰์†Œ๊ฐ ๋ฐœํ‘œ, ์‚ผ์„ฑ์ „์ž ๋Œ€๋น„ ๊ฐ•ํ•œ ํ™˜์› ์‹ ํ˜ธ
    L0_trend: ์ž์‚ฌ์ฃผ ๋งค์ž… ์ง„ํ–‰๋ฅ  5.6%(2.2์กฐ์›) ์ดˆ๊ธฐ ์ง‘ํ–‰ ํ™•์ธ. ์ „๋Ÿ‰ ์†Œ๊ฐ์€ EPS ํฌ์„ ๋ฐฉ์ง€ ํšจ๊ณผ๋กœ ์‚ผ์„ฑ์ „์ž(๋งค์ž… ํ›„ ๋ฏธ์†Œ๊ฐ)๋ณด๋‹ค ์ฃผ์ฃผ๊ฐ€์น˜ ์ œ๊ณ  ๊ฐ•๋„๊ฐ€ ํผ. ๋ฉ”๋ชจ๋ฆฌ ์—…์‚ฌ์ดํด๊ณผ ๋งž๋ฌผ๋ ค valuation ์ง€์ง€ ์š”์ธ.
    L1_industry: TODO
    L2_bottleneck:
      - TODO
    L3_primary:
      KR:
        - {name: SKํ•˜์ด๋‹‰์Šค, code: '000660'}
      Global: []
    L4_picks_shovels:
      KR: []
      Global: []
    L5_ecosystem:
      KR: []
      Global: []
    horizon: 1-3y
    confidence: low
    related_chains: []
    sources:
      - "2026-08-22 Claude marking (watch)"
    notes: |
      ์ž์‚ฌ์ฃผ ๋งค์ž… ์ง„ํ–‰๋ฅ  5.6%(2.2์กฐ์›) ์ดˆ๊ธฐ ์ง‘ํ–‰ ํ™•์ธ. ์ „๋Ÿ‰ ์†Œ๊ฐ์€ EPS ํฌ์„ ๋ฐฉ์ง€ ํšจ๊ณผ๋กœ ์‚ผ์„ฑ์ „์ž(๋งค์ž… ํ›„ ๋ฏธ์†Œ๊ฐ)๋ณด๋‹ค ์ฃผ์ฃผ๊ฐ€์น˜ ์ œ๊ณ  ๊ฐ•๋„๊ฐ€ ํผ. ๋ฉ”๋ชจ๋ฆฌ ์—…์‚ฌ์ดํด๊ณผ ๋งž๋ฌผ๋ ค valuation ์ง€์ง€ ์š”์ธ.
๐Ÿ“Œ Watch materials

์„ฑ๊ด‘๋ฒค๋“œ โ€” ์บ๋‚˜๋‹ค LNG Phase2ๅ‘ 255์–ต ๊ณต๊ธ‰๊ณ„์•ฝ, ๋งค์ถœ 10% ์ƒํšŒ ์ฒซ ์‚ฌ๋ก€

ํ”ผํŒ… ์‚ฐ์—… ํŠน์„ฑ์ƒ ๋ถ„ํ• ๋ฐœ์ฃผ๊ฐ€ ์ผ๋ฐ˜์ ์ธ๋ฐ ๋‹จ๊ฑด 255์–ต ๊ณ„์•ฝ์€ ์ด๋ก€์ . ์บ๋‚˜๋‹ค LNG ์ˆ˜์ถœ ํ™•๋Œ€ ์‚ฌ์ดํด ์ดˆ์ž… ์‹ ํ˜ธ๋กœ K-์—๋„ˆ์ง€ ๊ธฐ์ž์žฌ ์ฒด์ธ ์ˆ˜ํ˜œ ๊ฐ€๋Šฅ์„ฑ.
๐Ÿ“Š 62/100 cyclical catalyst 6m
backlog
moderate
โš ๏ธ Falsifier (thesis ๋ฐ˜์ „ ์กฐ๊ฑด): ๋‹จ๋ฐœ์„ฑ ๊ณ„์•ฝ์œผ๋กœ ํ›„์† ์บ๋‚˜๋‹ค LNG ๋ฐœ์ฃผ ์ด์–ด์ง€์ง€ ์•Š์œผ๋ฉด ์ผํšŒ์„ฑ ์ด๋ฒคํŠธ๋กœ ๊ทธ์นจ
๐Ÿ“‹ chain yaml snippet (vault์— ์ถ”๊ฐ€)
  - chain_id: mark-20260822-watch-yaml-2
    name: ์„ฑ๊ด‘๋ฒค๋“œ โ€” ์บ๋‚˜๋‹ค LNG Phase2ๅ‘ 255์–ต ๊ณต๊ธ‰๊ณ„์•ฝ, ๋งค์ถœ 10% ์ƒํšŒ ์ฒซ ์‚ฌ๋ก€
    L0_trend: ํ”ผํŒ… ์‚ฐ์—… ํŠน์„ฑ์ƒ ๋ถ„ํ• ๋ฐœ์ฃผ๊ฐ€ ์ผ๋ฐ˜์ ์ธ๋ฐ ๋‹จ๊ฑด 255์–ต ๊ณ„์•ฝ์€ ์ด๋ก€์ . ์บ๋‚˜๋‹ค LNG ์ˆ˜์ถœ ํ™•๋Œ€ ์‚ฌ์ดํด ์ดˆ์ž… ์‹ ํ˜ธ๋กœ K-์—๋„ˆ์ง€ ๊ธฐ์ž์žฌ ์ฒด์ธ ์ˆ˜ํ˜œ ๊ฐ€๋Šฅ์„ฑ.
    L1_industry: TODO
    L2_bottleneck:
      - TODO
    L3_primary:
      KR:
        - {name: ์„ฑ๊ด‘๋ฒค๋“œ, code: '014620'}
      Global: []
    L4_picks_shovels:
      KR: []
      Global: []
    L5_ecosystem:
      KR: []
      Global: []
    horizon: 1-3y
    confidence: low
    related_chains: []
    sources:
      - "2026-08-22 Claude marking (watch)"
    notes: |
      ํ”ผํŒ… ์‚ฐ์—… ํŠน์„ฑ์ƒ ๋ถ„ํ• ๋ฐœ์ฃผ๊ฐ€ ์ผ๋ฐ˜์ ์ธ๋ฐ ๋‹จ๊ฑด 255์–ต ๊ณ„์•ฝ์€ ์ด๋ก€์ . ์บ๋‚˜๋‹ค LNG ์ˆ˜์ถœ ํ™•๋Œ€ ์‚ฌ์ดํด ์ดˆ์ž… ์‹ ํ˜ธ๋กœ K-์—๋„ˆ์ง€ ๊ธฐ์ž์žฌ ์ฒด์ธ ์ˆ˜ํ˜œ ๊ฐ€๋Šฅ์„ฑ.
๐Ÿ“Œ Watch auto

์ธ์ง€์ปจํŠธ๋กค์Šค โ€” ํ˜„๋Œ€๋ชจ๋น„์Šคๅ‘ SENSING ASSY 6์ข… ๊ณต๊ธ‰๊ณ„์•ฝ, ๋งค์ถœ๋Œ€๋น„ 66.27%ยท7๋…„4๊ฐœ์›” ์žฅ๊ธฐ

๊ณ„์•ฝ๊ธˆ์•ก 4,757์–ต์›(๋งค์ถœ๋Œ€๋น„ 66.27%)์œผ๋กœ 2028~2035๋…„ ์žฅ๊ธฐ backlog ํ™•๋ณด. ์ž๋™์ฐจ ์„ผ์„œ ๋ถ€ํ’ˆ ๋‹จ์ผ ๊ณ ๊ฐ ์˜์กด๋„๊ฐ€ ๋†’์ง€๋งŒ backlog visibility๋Š” ๋งค์šฐ ๊ฐ•ํ•จ.
๐Ÿ“Š 65/100 cyclical catalyst 6m
backlog
high
โš ๏ธ Falsifier (thesis ๋ฐ˜์ „ ์กฐ๊ฑด): ํ˜„๋Œ€๋ชจ๋น„์Šคํ–ฅ ๋‹จ์ผ๊ณ ๊ฐ ์˜์กด(๋งค์ถœ๋น„์ค‘ 66%)์œผ๋กœ ๋ฌผ๋Ÿ‰ ์กฐ์ • ์‹œ backlog ๊ฐ€์น˜ ๊ธ‰๋ฝ ๊ฐ€๋Šฅ
๐Ÿ“‹ chain yaml snippet (vault์— ์ถ”๊ฐ€)
  - chain_id: mark-20260822-watch-yaml-3
    name: ์ธ์ง€์ปจํŠธ๋กค์Šค โ€” ํ˜„๋Œ€๋ชจ๋น„์Šคๅ‘ SENSING ASSY 6์ข… ๊ณต๊ธ‰๊ณ„์•ฝ, ๋งค์ถœ๋Œ€๋น„ 66.27%ยท7๋…„4๊ฐœ์›” ์žฅ๊ธฐ
    L0_trend: ๊ณ„์•ฝ๊ธˆ์•ก 4,757์–ต์›(๋งค์ถœ๋Œ€๋น„ 66.27%)์œผ๋กœ 2028~2035๋…„ ์žฅ๊ธฐ backlog ํ™•๋ณด. ์ž๋™์ฐจ ์„ผ์„œ ๋ถ€ํ’ˆ ๋‹จ์ผ ๊ณ ๊ฐ ์˜์กด๋„๊ฐ€ ๋†’์ง€๋งŒ backlog visibility๋Š” ๋งค์šฐ ๊ฐ•ํ•จ.
    L1_industry: TODO
    L2_bottleneck:
      - TODO
    L3_primary:
      KR:
        - {name: ์ธ์ง€์ปจํŠธ๋กค์Šค, code: '023800'}
        - {name: ํ˜„๋Œ€๋ชจ๋น„์Šค, code: '012330'}
      Global: []
    L4_picks_shovels:
      KR: []
      Global: []
    L5_ecosystem:
      KR: []
      Global: []
    horizon: 1-3y
    confidence: low
    related_chains: []
    sources:
      - "2026-08-22 Claude marking (watch)"
    notes: |
      ๊ณ„์•ฝ๊ธˆ์•ก 4,757์–ต์›(๋งค์ถœ๋Œ€๋น„ 66.27%)์œผ๋กœ 2028~2035๋…„ ์žฅ๊ธฐ backlog ํ™•๋ณด. ์ž๋™์ฐจ ์„ผ์„œ ๋ถ€ํ’ˆ ๋‹จ์ผ ๊ณ ๊ฐ ์˜์กด๋„๊ฐ€ ๋†’์ง€๋งŒ backlog visibility๋Š” ๋งค์šฐ ๊ฐ•ํ•จ.