๐Ÿ“Š raki research
๐ŸŽฏ DAILY2026-08-20

๐ŸŽฏ 2026-08-20 DAILY Marking

Claude CLI๊ฐ€ 24h ์‚ฐ์—… ์ด์Šˆ์—์„œ ์ž๋™ ์ถ”์ถœ ยท ๐Ÿ”ฅ 0 / ๐Ÿ“Œ 3 / ๐Ÿ’ก 0

๐Ÿ”ฅ Critical (0๊ฑด)

๐Ÿ“Œ Watch (3๊ฑด)

๐Ÿ“Œ Watch shipbuilding

๋Œ€ํ•œํ•ด์šด ํ•˜๋‚˜์ฆ๊ถŒ ์‹ ๊ทœ ์ปค๋ฒ„๋ฆฌ์ง€ BUY โ€” LNG์„ ยท๋ฒŒํฌ ์žฅ๊ธฐ๊ณ„์•ฝ backlog

ํ•˜๋‚˜์ฆ๊ถŒ์ด ๋Œ€ํ•œํ•ด์šด์— ๋ชฉํ‘œ์ฃผ๊ฐ€ 2,500์›์œผ๋กœ ์‹ ๊ทœ ์ปค๋ฒ„๋ฆฌ์ง€ ๊ฐœ์‹œ, ์žฅ๊ธฐ๊ณ„์•ฝ ์œ„์ฃผ ๋ฒŒํฌ/LNG ์„ ์‚ฌ๋กœ ์•ˆ์ •์  ์‹ค์ ๊ณผ ํ–ฅํ›„ LNG์„  ํ™•๋Œ€ ๊ธฐ๋Œ€๊ฐ ์ œ์‹œ. ์กฐ์„ /ํ•ด์šด chain ๋‚ด backlog ๊ฐ€์‹œ์„ฑ ์žˆ์œผ๋‚˜ ๋‹จ์ผ broker ์ปค๋ฒ„๋ฆฌ์ง€๋กœ ์‹ ๋ขฐ๋„ ์ œํ•œ.
๐Ÿ“Š 58/100 secular catalyst 6m quality moderate
backlog
moderate
โš ๏ธ Falsifier (thesis ๋ฐ˜์ „ ์กฐ๊ฑด): [secular-evidence=1] | ๋‹จ์ผ broker(ํ•˜๋‚˜์ฆ๊ถŒ) ์ปค๋ฒ„๋ฆฌ์ง€ ๊ฐœ์‹œ๋กœ ์‹ ๋ขฐ๋„ ๋‚ฎ์Œ โ€” ์ถ”๊ฐ€ broker ๋™์‹œ ์ƒํ–ฅ์ด ์—†์œผ๋ฉด revision_strength ์•ฝํ™”
๐Ÿ“‹ chain yaml snippet (vault์— ์ถ”๊ฐ€)
  - chain_id: mark-20260820-watch-yaml-0
    name: ๋Œ€ํ•œํ•ด์šด ํ•˜๋‚˜์ฆ๊ถŒ ์‹ ๊ทœ ์ปค๋ฒ„๋ฆฌ์ง€ BUY โ€” LNG์„ ยท๋ฒŒํฌ ์žฅ๊ธฐ๊ณ„์•ฝ backlog
    L0_trend: ํ•˜๋‚˜์ฆ๊ถŒ์ด ๋Œ€ํ•œํ•ด์šด์— ๋ชฉํ‘œ์ฃผ๊ฐ€ 2,500์›์œผ๋กœ ์‹ ๊ทœ ์ปค๋ฒ„๋ฆฌ์ง€ ๊ฐœ์‹œ, ์žฅ๊ธฐ๊ณ„์•ฝ ์œ„์ฃผ ๋ฒŒํฌ/LNG ์„ ์‚ฌ๋กœ ์•ˆ์ •์  ์‹ค์ ๊ณผ ํ–ฅํ›„ LNG์„  ํ™•๋Œ€ ๊ธฐ๋Œ€๊ฐ ์ œ์‹œ. ์กฐ์„ /ํ•ด์šด chain ๋‚ด backlog ๊ฐ€์‹œ์„ฑ ์žˆ์œผ๋‚˜ ๋‹จ์ผ bro
    L1_industry: TODO
    L2_bottleneck:
      - TODO
    L3_primary:
      KR:
        - {name: ๋Œ€ํ•œํ•ด์šด, code: '005880'}
      Global: []
    L4_picks_shovels:
      KR: []
      Global: []
    L5_ecosystem:
      KR: []
      Global: []
    horizon: 1-3y
    confidence: low
    related_chains: []
    sources:
      - "2026-08-20 Claude marking (watch)"
    notes: |
      ํ•˜๋‚˜์ฆ๊ถŒ์ด ๋Œ€ํ•œํ•ด์šด์— ๋ชฉํ‘œ์ฃผ๊ฐ€ 2,500์›์œผ๋กœ ์‹ ๊ทœ ์ปค๋ฒ„๋ฆฌ์ง€ ๊ฐœ์‹œ, ์žฅ๊ธฐ๊ณ„์•ฝ ์œ„์ฃผ ๋ฒŒํฌ/LNG ์„ ์‚ฌ๋กœ ์•ˆ์ •์  ์‹ค์ ๊ณผ ํ–ฅํ›„ LNG์„  ํ™•๋Œ€ ๊ธฐ๋Œ€๊ฐ ์ œ์‹œ. ์กฐ์„ /ํ•ด์šด chain ๋‚ด backlog ๊ฐ€์‹œ์„ฑ ์žˆ์œผ๋‚˜ ๋‹จ์ผ broker ์ปค๋ฒ„๋ฆฌ์ง€๋กœ ์‹ ๋ขฐ๋„ ์ œํ•œ.
๐Ÿ“Œ Watch ai-substrate semiconductor

SKํ•˜์ด๋‹‰์Šค 40์กฐ ์ž์‚ฌ์ฃผ ๋งค์ž…ยท์†Œ๊ฐ โ€” ๋ฉ”๋ชจ๋ฆฌ ์Šˆํผ์‚ฌ์ดํด ์ž์‹ ๊ฐ ์‹ ํ˜ธ

SKํ•˜์ด๋‹‰์Šค๊ฐ€ ์—ญ๋Œ€๊ธ‰ ๊ทœ๋ชจ ์ž์‚ฌ์ฃผ ๋งค์ž…ยท์†Œ๊ฐ์„ ๋ฐœํ‘œ, BofA๋Š” ๊ฒฝ์˜์ง„์˜ ๋ฉ”๋ชจ๋ฆฌ ์Šˆํผ์‚ฌ์ดํด confidence ์‹ ํ˜ธ๋กœ ํ•ด์„. ์‚ผ์„ฑ์ „์ž๋„ 1~2์ฃผ ๋‚ด FCF ๊ธฐ๋ฐ˜ ์ฃผ์ฃผํ™˜์› ๋ฐœํ‘œ ์˜ˆ์ƒ. ๋ฐ˜๋„์ฒด ์กฐ์ •์žฅ ์† ๋‚™ํญ ์ถ•์†Œ ์š”์ธ์ด๋‚˜ ์ด์ต ๋ชจ๋ฉ˜ํ…€ ์ž์ฒด์˜ ์ง์ ‘ ์ฆ๊ฑฐ๋Š” ์•„๋‹˜(์ž๋ณธ๋ฐฐ๋ถ„ ์‹ ํ˜ธ).
๐Ÿ“Š 65/100 secular catalyst 1m quality moderate
backlog
high
โš ๏ธ Falsifier (thesis ๋ฐ˜์ „ ์กฐ๊ฑด): [secular-evidence=1] | โš”๏ธ ์˜๋„์  ๋„์ „: ์ž์‚ฌ์ฃผ ๋งค์ž…์€ ์ด์ต ๋ชจ๋ฉ˜ํ…€์˜ ๊ฒฐ๊ณผ์ด์ง€ ์›์ธ์ด ์•„๋‹˜ โ€” ๋™์‹œ์— ํ•„๋ผ๋ธํ”ผ์•„ ๋ฐ˜๋„์ฒด์ง€์ˆ˜ 5% ๊ธ‰๋ฝ, AI ๋ฐ์ดํ„ฐ์„ผํ„ฐ ๊ฑด์„ค ์ง€์—ฐ ๊ทœ์ œ ์šฐ๋ ค๋กœ ๋ฐธ๋ฅ˜ ๋ถˆ์•ˆ์ด ๋ถ€๊ฐ๋˜๊ณ  ์žˆ์–ด ์ฃผ์ฃผํ™˜์›์ด ํŽ€๋”๋ฉ˜ํ„ธ ๋‘”ํ™”๋ฅผ ์ƒ์‡„ํ•˜๋ ค๋Š” ๋ฐฉ์–ด์  ์‹ ํ˜ธ์ผ ๊ฐ€๋Šฅ์„ฑ๋„ ๋ฐฐ์ œ ๋ชปํ•จ. 3Q26 ์‹ค์ ์—์„œ ๋ฉ”๋ชจ๋ฆฌ ASPยทOPM ๊ฐ€์†์ด ํ™•์ธ๋˜์ง€ ์•Š์œผ๋ฉด ๋ฐ˜์ „
๐Ÿ“‹ chain yaml snippet (vault์— ์ถ”๊ฐ€)
  - chain_id: mark-20260820-watch-yaml-1
    name: SKํ•˜์ด๋‹‰์Šค 40์กฐ ์ž์‚ฌ์ฃผ ๋งค์ž…ยท์†Œ๊ฐ โ€” ๋ฉ”๋ชจ๋ฆฌ ์Šˆํผ์‚ฌ์ดํด ์ž์‹ ๊ฐ ์‹ ํ˜ธ
    L0_trend: SKํ•˜์ด๋‹‰์Šค๊ฐ€ ์—ญ๋Œ€๊ธ‰ ๊ทœ๋ชจ ์ž์‚ฌ์ฃผ ๋งค์ž…ยท์†Œ๊ฐ์„ ๋ฐœํ‘œ, BofA๋Š” ๊ฒฝ์˜์ง„์˜ ๋ฉ”๋ชจ๋ฆฌ ์Šˆํผ์‚ฌ์ดํด confidence ์‹ ํ˜ธ๋กœ ํ•ด์„. ์‚ผ์„ฑ์ „์ž๋„ 1~2์ฃผ ๋‚ด FCF ๊ธฐ๋ฐ˜ ์ฃผ์ฃผํ™˜์› ๋ฐœํ‘œ ์˜ˆ์ƒ. ๋ฐ˜๋„์ฒด ์กฐ์ •์žฅ ์† ๋‚™ํญ ์ถ•์†Œ ์š”์ธ
    L1_industry: TODO
    L2_bottleneck:
      - TODO
    L3_primary:
      KR:
        - {name: SKํ•˜์ด๋‹‰์Šค, code: '000660'}
        - {name: ์‚ผ์„ฑ์ „์ž, code: '005930'}
      Global: []
    L4_picks_shovels:
      KR: []
      Global: []
    L5_ecosystem:
      KR: []
      Global: []
    horizon: 1-3y
    confidence: low
    related_chains: []
    sources:
      - "2026-08-20 Claude marking (watch)"
    notes: |
      SKํ•˜์ด๋‹‰์Šค๊ฐ€ ์—ญ๋Œ€๊ธ‰ ๊ทœ๋ชจ ์ž์‚ฌ์ฃผ ๋งค์ž…ยท์†Œ๊ฐ์„ ๋ฐœํ‘œ, BofA๋Š” ๊ฒฝ์˜์ง„์˜ ๋ฉ”๋ชจ๋ฆฌ ์Šˆํผ์‚ฌ์ดํด confidence ์‹ ํ˜ธ๋กœ ํ•ด์„. ์‚ผ์„ฑ์ „์ž๋„ 1~2์ฃผ ๋‚ด FCF ๊ธฐ๋ฐ˜ ์ฃผ์ฃผํ™˜์› ๋ฐœํ‘œ ์˜ˆ์ƒ. ๋ฐ˜๋„์ฒด ์กฐ์ •์žฅ ์† ๋‚™ํญ ์ถ•์†Œ ์š”์ธ์ด๋‚˜ ์ด์ต ๋ชจ๋ฉ˜ํ…€ ์ž์ฒด์˜ ์ง์ ‘ ์ฆ๊ฑฐ๋Š” ์•„๋‹˜(์ž๋ณธ๋ฐฐ๋ถ„ ์‹ ํ˜ธ).
๐Ÿ“Œ Watch ai-power-bottleneck semiconductor

์‚ผ์„ฑ ํŒŒ์šด๋“œ๋ฆฌ 4nm/5nm ๊ฐ€๊ฒฉ ์ตœ๋Œ€ 15% ์ธ์ƒ โ€” AI ์ˆ˜์š”็™ผ ๊ณต๊ธ‰ ๋ณ‘๋ชฉ

AI ์นฉ ์ˆ˜์š” ๊ธ‰์ฆ์œผ๋กœ ์‚ผ์„ฑ ํŒŒ์šด๋“œ๋ฆฌ๊ฐ€ 7์›”๋ถ€ํ„ฐ 4nm/5nm ์‹ ๊ทœ ์ฃผ๋ฌธ๊ฐ€๋ฅผ 10~15% ์ธ์ƒ, 8nm๋„ ์•ฝ 10% ์ธ์ƒ. TSMC ๋Œ€๋น„ ์ €๊ฐ€ ํฌ์ง€์…”๋‹ ์ถ•์†Œ ๊ฐ€๋Šฅ์„ฑ์œผ๋กœ ํŒŒ์šด๋“œ๋ฆฌ ์‚ฌ์—… margin ๊ฐœ์„  ์‹œ๊ทธ๋„์ด๋‚˜, ์•„์ง ๋งค์ถœ ๋ฐ˜์˜ ์‹œ์ฐจ ์กด์žฌ.
๐Ÿ“Š 62/100 secular catalyst 3m quality moderate
backlog
moderate
โš ๏ธ Falsifier (thesis ๋ฐ˜์ „ ์กฐ๊ฑด): [secular-evidence=1] | ๊ฐ€๊ฒฉ ์ธ์ƒ์ด ์‹ค์ œ ํŒŒ์šด๋“œ๋ฆฌ ๋งค์ถœยทOPM์— ๋ฐ˜์˜๋˜์ง€ ์•Š๊ฑฐ๋‚˜ ๊ณ ๊ฐ ์ดํƒˆ๋กœ ๋ฌผ๋Ÿ‰ ๊ฐ์†Œ ์‹œ thesis ๋ฐ˜์ „
๐Ÿ“‹ chain yaml snippet (vault์— ์ถ”๊ฐ€)
  - chain_id: mark-20260820-watch-yaml-2
    name: ์‚ผ์„ฑ ํŒŒ์šด๋“œ๋ฆฌ 4nm/5nm ๊ฐ€๊ฒฉ ์ตœ๋Œ€ 15% ์ธ์ƒ โ€” AI ์ˆ˜์š”็™ผ ๊ณต๊ธ‰ ๋ณ‘๋ชฉ
    L0_trend: AI ์นฉ ์ˆ˜์š” ๊ธ‰์ฆ์œผ๋กœ ์‚ผ์„ฑ ํŒŒ์šด๋“œ๋ฆฌ๊ฐ€ 7์›”๋ถ€ํ„ฐ 4nm/5nm ์‹ ๊ทœ ์ฃผ๋ฌธ๊ฐ€๋ฅผ 10~15% ์ธ์ƒ, 8nm๋„ ์•ฝ 10% ์ธ์ƒ. TSMC ๋Œ€๋น„ ์ €๊ฐ€ ํฌ์ง€์…”๋‹ ์ถ•์†Œ ๊ฐ€๋Šฅ์„ฑ์œผ๋กœ ํŒŒ์šด๋“œ๋ฆฌ ์‚ฌ์—… margin ๊ฐœ์„  ์‹œ๊ทธ๋„์ด๋‚˜, ์•„
    L1_industry: TODO
    L2_bottleneck:
      - TODO
    L3_primary:
      KR:
        - {name: ์‚ผ์„ฑ์ „์ž, code: '005930'}
      Global: []
    L4_picks_shovels:
      KR: []
      Global: []
    L5_ecosystem:
      KR: []
      Global: []
    horizon: 1-3y
    confidence: low
    related_chains: []
    sources:
      - "2026-08-20 Claude marking (watch)"
    notes: |
      AI ์นฉ ์ˆ˜์š” ๊ธ‰์ฆ์œผ๋กœ ์‚ผ์„ฑ ํŒŒ์šด๋“œ๋ฆฌ๊ฐ€ 7์›”๋ถ€ํ„ฐ 4nm/5nm ์‹ ๊ทœ ์ฃผ๋ฌธ๊ฐ€๋ฅผ 10~15% ์ธ์ƒ, 8nm๋„ ์•ฝ 10% ์ธ์ƒ. TSMC ๋Œ€๋น„ ์ €๊ฐ€ ํฌ์ง€์…”๋‹ ์ถ•์†Œ ๊ฐ€๋Šฅ์„ฑ์œผ๋กœ ํŒŒ์šด๋“œ๋ฆฌ ์‚ฌ์—… margin ๊ฐœ์„  ์‹œ๊ทธ๋„์ด๋‚˜, ์•„์ง ๋งค์ถœ ๋ฐ˜์˜ ์‹œ์ฐจ ์กด์žฌ.